Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Possibly (just) rideable NE windswell Thurs PM, extending into Fri AM with winds shifting offshore Fri
• Tiny surf Sat, extending into Sun AM
• Freshening W’ly winds Sun, tending strong SW as front and low form in Tasman
• Rapid spike in S swell now likely Sun a’noon
• Strong, winter-calibre S tending SE swell next week as strong low sits in Tasman
• Very large S swell Mon, tending S/SE then SE and remaining high right through the week
• Fresh SW-S winds next week, slowly easing into the end of the week

Recap

Small residual S/SE swells are hanging in there bravely with yesterday in the 2 occ. 3ft range under light winds and still offering up the odd 2ft set under a more NW flow, expected to tend NE in the a’noon. Surf has been punching just a smidge above it’s forecast weight and offering up a few fun small waves. 

Still the odd little small clean wave about at S exposed beaches

This week (July 24-26)

Lovely settled conditions at the moment with a broad area of high pressure in the Tasman and no major swell generating features in the short term. Next week now looks much more active! We’ll get to that shortly. We’ll see a N’ly flow develop in advance of a trough but the fetch now looks even more poorly aligned and short lived so not much surf expected from it. Tiny surf extends into the weekend before a major winter-calibre front and low brings a very sizey S swell event building Sun a’noon and bringing elevated wave heights for most of next week. Details below.

Nothing much to see short term. The current S/SE-SE swell will all be gone and we’ll see a freshening N’ly flow tomorrow that may tend NW late in the day. Any NE windswell will be minor but a few small sidewinders can’t be ruled out. Nothing exceeding 1-2ft and much more likely to be in 1ft range.

Same again Fri as far as surf size goes. There may be a couple of just rideable sidewinders at open beaches. Winds will be light as a trough clears the coast with some unstable weather about. Winds should be light and offshore before the trough clears with light/variable flow likely in the a’noon.

This weekend (July 27-28)

A game of two halves this weekend. Saturday still looks tiny, or close to dead flat with a micro wave possible at open beaches under light winds. A better day for other oceanic activities.

By Sunday a front interacts with a trough of low pressure in the Tasman and explosive development looks likely. Early W’ly winds will freshen and tend strong SW in the a’noon. Depending on the timing of this formation we’re likely to see tiny/flat surf spike rapidly from the S in the a’noon, potentially reaching 6ft by close of play as gales develop proximate to the coast and extending SE of Tasmania.

Next week (July 29 onwards)

With good model agreement now there’s high confidence we’ll see a major winter swell event next week as a slow moving low takes up occupancy in the Central Tasman leading to a highly energised stormy sea state over a majority of the Tasman Sea. GFS has a slightly more bullish outlook than EC but either way Mon now looks very big with size from the S in the 6-8ft range, possibly tending bigger 8-10ft at open bommies. Fresh to strong SW tending S/SW winds will confine surfing to places with S’ly wind protection. 

What follows will be a working week or so of elevated surf with swell direction clocking more S/SE then SE as the low looks to sit up near the North Island (see below).

Under current modelling we’d expect surf in the 6ft+ range Tues, with a just a slow easing through Wed and into Thurs/Fri. 

It’s hard to see surf dropping below 4-5ft by Fri. We’re still a few days from this system developing so we’ll see how it looks on Fri but as for all Tasman Lows we’ll have too wait for the storm to develop to properly call it. Therefore expect some revisions between now and next week.

Winds will be the issue, at least for temperate NSW. They’ll remain S’ly biased through the first half of the week, SW in the morning and tending S’ly through the day so you will need to seek some wind protection.

EC suggests a high moving into the Tasman later in the week with winds tending to light land and seabreezes through Thurs into Fri.

GFS persists with the S’ly flow into the end of the working week.

We’ll finesse the wind outlook through Fri but at this stage definitely looks like the step-ups and even guns might get a work-out next week.

Check back Fri for the latest.