Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon August 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing E swells Tues (last day of it) with light winds tending W/SW-SW
• Marginal surf Wed/Thurs with light winds Wed freshening N/NE winds Thurs
• Possibly some just rideable NE windswell late Thurs into Fri AM with winds swinging NW Fri
• Small S bump Fri PM, extending into Sat
• Winds tending onshore Sun
• Small surf to start next week with onshore winds
• Summer style E/NE swells from mid next week as broad E’ly flow establishes in Coral Sea and extends into Northern Tasman

Recap

Great weekend of waves as reinforcing E/SE and SE swells held size to 5 occ. 6ft on Sat, holding mostly 3 occ. 5ft on Sun. Conditions were good with offshore winds in the morning hampered by mod a’noon N-NE breezes Sat, with a late, light E/SE breeze on Sun . Mostly clean again this morning with 3 occ. 4ft sets on offer to add to the long tail of this swell event.

Some pumping waves around on Sun

This  week (Aug 5-9)

We’ve got weak high pressure in the Tasman and a trough and north-west cloud band across the SE of the country linked to Indian Ocean moisture. Pressure gradients will stay weak in our proximate and medium range spheres of influence so as the current E/SE swell ebbs away we’re in for a quiet spell on the surf front. Models are now in broad agreement that over this weekend and into next week, we’ll see a strong, broad and deep E’ly flow develop in the Coral Sea and near South Pacific. Initially this will favour sub-tropical regions for size (at least a chunky tradewind swell) with swell trains eventually propagating down to more temperate regions as next well rolls on. A complete 180 degree reversal from the dominant winter pattern and huge Tasman Low event we just experienced. Read on for details.

In the short run and we’ll be on the last dregs of this swell with mostly 2ft surf and just a chance of the occ. 3ft set in the morning before it dribbles away to 2ft or less in the a’noon. A weak, troughy change will see morning offshore W winds tend SW then S during the a’noon without much strength in it.

We’ll see a couple of days of very small, weak surf following. Likely bottoming out through Tues and Wed in the 1 occ. 2ft range and suitable for beginners and logs. Light winds through Wed with morning offshores and variable a’noon seabreezes. 

By Thurs we’ll see those winds tend more N/NE-NE and kick up to mod/fresh paces in the a’noon. It’s a very localised and short-lived N’ly flow so no real size is expected as far as NE windswell goes. Best case is a few 1-1.5ft side-winders Thurs a’noon and into Fri morning.

By Fri we’ll see a NW flow tend W-SW and then variable under a complex troughy environment. A passing front Wed/Thurs looks to send a small S swell signal up the pipe showing after lunch Fri in the 2 occ. 3ft range at S swell magnets. Not much elsewhere.

This weekend (Aug 10-11)

Fridays S swell bump should hold into Sat with the first half of the day seeing similar 2 occ. 3ft surf at S facing beaches, a touch bigger on the Hunter. Tricky winds around a troughy area but we should see light land breezes in the morning, probably tending to S-SE breezes as a high cell starts to build a ridge up the coast. 

More of an onshore flow Sun as the high cell starts to strengthen, although the onshore flow will be much stronger in the sub-tropics. Under current modelling the high will be located off the South Coast so winds should stay light. Likely a morning offshore flow before winds tend E-E/SE in the a’noon. Not much surf to speak of. We may see some short period swell from the proximate fetch but it’ll be 1-2ft windswell and not really worth working around.

Next week (Aug 12 onwards)

By Mon we’re expecting a deep E’ly flow to have established through our near South Pacific Island chains and extending into the Coral Sea (see below), possibly with an embedded trough or E’ly dip through the Coral Sea. This Summer pattern is expected to generate sizey E’ly swells for the sub-tropics under SE-E winds.

Through temperate NSW we’ll see winds from the SE tend E then NE as the dominant high moves E across the Tasman. 

Not much swell for the start of the week with small E’ly swells extending through Mon and into Tues.
By mid next week we should see swells start to filter down from this broad E’ly fetch with surf from the E/NE likely building into the 2-3ft range through Wed and into Thurs. 

Those swells will be augmented by more local E/NE-NE winds in the Tasman as the high moves E.

Thats still over a week away so we’ve got plenty of time to dial in size and winds but confidence in the general pattern is high due to the model agreement. 

We’ll come back Wed and have a fresh look at it.

Seeya then.