The models are suggesting an unusually thin, elongated fetch thanks to a broad supporting ridge to the south, and the slow northward track of this system is somewhat interesting as the fetch will hang in the swell window a little longer than usual, which should boost size prospects.
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Look, I can go into comprehensive detail about the synoptic for the next few days, but in short we’re looking at a continuing period of small weak surf.
These overnight NE winds should kick up some more of what we’re seeing today, but the trend will ease through Tuesday
Freshening NE winds on Monday will generate peaky NE windswells throughout the day day should hold into Tuesday
Although the models did pretty well with today’s short period S’ly swell, I reckon they’ve undervalued tomorrow’s S’ly groundswell.
The polar low responsible for some of yesterday’s and all of today’s southerly quadrant energy is an unusual system on many fronts.
A deep low is forming off Tasmanian’s East Coast, and winds are expected to become pretty strong off the Far South Coast tonight.
We have a couple of swells due in over the coming 48 hours.
As a surf forecaster, one of the hardest times to make a decision is mid-swell event, when the early stages of said event haven’t lived up to expectations. That's where I am right now.
As we’re already seeing 2-3ft sets across NE facing beaches late this afternoon, this size range should be present for the dawn patrol but get in early as it’ll ease throughout the day.