Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 28th June)

Best Days: Thurs: small, easing S'ly swell with good winds. Fri/Sat: large S'ly swell at times, though windy (mainly Fri). Sun: moderate, steadily easing S'ly swell with good winds. Mon/Tues: chance for a small sneaky SE swell with periods of offshore winds. 

Recap: Tuesday saw a fun south swell build across the coast, with 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches. A second, longer period south swell build across the coast today with stronger sets around 3ft across the Sydney region, and bigger waves in the Hunter. Conditions have been clean both days with light offshore winds. 

This week (Jun 29 - 30)

We’ve got two completely different days ahead to finish the week. 

Thursday will see mainly light offshore winds and a steady easing south swell from today. There’s a chance for occasional 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches early morning but it’ll likely be down to 1-2ft by the afternoon, possibly earlier. At least conditions will be clean (the Hunter may see a few bigger sets). Expect long breaks between the bigger waves. 

A strong front will move into the lower Tasman Sea overnight Thursday, and push up gale force SW tending S/SW winds across Southern NSW through the early hours of Friday morning, probably reaching Sydney a few hours before dawn. 

This will generate a large building south swell throughout the day that should reach 5-6ft+ at south facing beaches into the afternoon (though smaller in the morning). However with these gusty conditions, the only surfable options will be at protected southern corners - it’ll be much smaller at these locations but much more manageable. 

This weekend (Jul 1 - 2)

No changes to the weekend outlook - Friday afternoon’s large swell increase will peak overnight and then trend downwards throughout the weekend. So, Saturday morning will see the most size though there is still some risk of a lingering southerly flow - mainly through the Hunter.

In general we’ll see moderating SW winds, tending lighter W’ly south of Sydney (this will extend north throughout Saturday afternoon). By Sunday we’ll be under a light variable tending NW influence with much cleaner conditions. There's a chance for a late freshening N'ly breeze on Sunday afternoon as a front approaches from the west, but the timing on this is not yet clear. 

Early Saturday morning should see occasional 5-6ft+ sets at south facing beaches (bigger in the Hunter) but as per usual it’ll be much smaller at beaches with less southerly exposure. Expect size to ease to 4-5ft throughout the day, with Sunday easing from 3-4ft to 2-3ft. 

Sunday will probably be the pick of the weekend with better conditions and a more settled swell, though it will be smaller in size.

Next week (July 3 onwards)

The models have a slow easing trend through the first half of next week, but I’m keeping a cautious eye on a trailing system below the Tasman Low over the weekend, just south of New Zealand (see image below). Although only small in size, it’s (forecast to be) positioned in a unique swell window that is often underrepresented by the swell models, and could provide a small sneaky SE groundswell around Monday or Tuesday.

No major size is expected but we could see some 2-3ft waves from this source, at south facing beaches. Let's reassess on Friday.

The only downer early next week will be a freshening pre-frontal northerly flow across Southern NSW. Winds should veer NW by Monday afternoon but there’s a risk for some surface bumpiness at times.

Otherwise, the next transient mid-latitude low is expected to push into our swell window later Tuesday, and we’ve got a couple of sources of south swell for the middle to latter part of the week.

Initially, we may see a small spread of acute south swell from a W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait (3ft sets Wednesday), supplemented by a short range S/SW swell from a developing local fetch off the southern NSW coast around the same time. This will be the precursor to a strong front pushing through the southern Tasman Sea that’s expected to renew large southerly swells into Thursday in the 5-6ft+ range at south facing beaches, though with (again) accompanying gusty S/SW winds.

More on this in Friday’s update.