Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 21st June)

Best Days: Thurs: patchy winds but a decent E'ly swell, offshore at a few locations. Fri: offshore winds and fun E'ly swells. Sat: clean, easing E'ly swell. Sun: strong, long period S'ly swell at south facing beaches with offshore winds. 

Recap: Strong E'ly swells have provided excellent waves over the last few days, with mainly light winds creating great conditions. Most locations saw 4-5ft waves both days though there have been isolated reports of 6ft sets both yesterday and today. Winds have recently gone moderate to fresh S’ly across the Sydney and Illawarra coasts though it’s still light SW in the Hunter. 

This week (Jun 22 - 23)

The models haven’t done too well over the last few days but I rethink they’re looking pretty close for the end of the week. 

Our current E’ly swell appears to be easing - which is an earlier trend than expected in Monday’s notes - but the good news is that the backside of the Tasman Low is still quite active as of today and this will provide plenty of easterly swell through Thursday and Friday, just a little less consistent. If anything, the swell direction should swing a touch more north of east thanks to the fetch just north of New Zealand’s North Island (more likely on Friday than Thursday). 

Wave heights should ease back to 3-4ft+ at most open beaches, though there’ll be some long lully periods at times. Keep in mind that although most of the coast faces due east, each region has its own localised bathymetry that steers particular swell period/direction combos into specific beaches and reefs. So, an easterly swell direction does not necessarily guarantee an even spread of wave heights across the entire coast.

Also arriving overnight Thursday and building into Friday will be a small, directional south swell resulting from a cold front currently passing south of Tasmania. I’m still not totally confident on this swell source as the fetch wasn’t terribly well aligned within our swell window, but south swell magnets may pick up some stray 2ft to almost 2-3ft sets at times. 

The main problem for the next few days will be entered around Thursday’s local winds. A weak front moving up through the south-western Tasman Sea today (responsible for the afternoon southerlies) will merge with the Tasman Low and will eventually move away from the coastal margin on Thursday morning. However, we will see a lingering southerly breeze in many regions early in the day - mainly from Sydney to the Hunter region, though pockets of SW winds are possible (much more likely south from Wollongong). 

These breezes conditions should ease during the day but it’s just worth keeping in mind that some exposed spots will remain wind affected at first.

Friday is looking much better with a new ridge of high pressure swinging winds around to a moderate W/NW. This should groom the beaches nicely with the combo of E’ly and S’ly swells.

This weekend (Jun 24 - 25)

Offshore winds are expected all weekend as a series of cold fronts and lows pass south of our region. 

Our fun week of easterly swell will diminish from Saturday morning onwards, though exposed beaches should still see some early 3ft sets. Friday’s south swell will largely be on the way out so I’m not expecting much size from this region.

Late on Saturday, we’ll start to see two new sources of south swell push up the Southern NSW coast. Initially, a front passing east of Tasmania overnight Friday will display a W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait. This should kick up some 2-3ft sets for south swell magnets very late afternoon, though it’ll probably disappear by Sunday.

However, the parent low to this front will pass south of Tasmania on Friday evening and although not ideally aimed within our swell window, will generate a long period S’ly swell that will build through Sunday. It’s a tight, tricky system in a flukey part of our swell window and although the models have slightly weakened this system since Monday, we should see strong 3-4ft sets across south facing beaches by Sunday afternoon, pushing 4-5ft across the Hunter.

In fact, the initial source of this swell is a deep polar low well south of WA at the moment, and satellite imagery has shown that (this morning) surface winds have come in stronger than modelled. So, there is a chance that we may see a little more size from this episode over the weekend (and possibly an earlier building trend/peak cycle). I’ll have a closer look on Friday. 

Regardeless, with light offshore winds on hand there should be some great, strong southerly swells to finish the weekend. 

Next week (Jun 26 onwards)

Monday will see Sunday’s long period S’ly swell easing in size, with early W’ly winds veering SW as a series of fronts enter the southern Tasman Sea. 

These fronts will then kick start a fresh series of strong southerly swells for the middle of the week that should nudge 4-6ft at some south swell magnets. Winds will likely be out of the SW quadrant, sometimes S’ly at exposed spots but generally workable. More on this in Friday’s update.