Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 30th June)

Best Days: Sat: large S'ly swell at times, though windy (mainly affecting the Hunter). Easing/improving during the day. Sun: easing S'ly swell with a decent pulse of SE swell, and light winds. Mon/Tues: chance for a small sneaky SE swell with offshore winds. Wed/Thurs/Fri: small sneaky south swells. 

Recap: There were some fun waves across Sydney beaches on Thursday with easing 2-3ft S’ly swells and offshore winds. Today we’ve seen a slow increase in short range S’ly swell, though a rapid increase is expected by the end of the day. Early W/SW winds veered fresh S/SW late morning and are now S’ly. 

This weekend (Jul 1 - 2)

No changes to the weekend forecast at all, as has been discussed all week. 

The current building south swell will reach a peak in the early hours of Saturday morning, and trend down from there. Early sets should be easily 5-6ft+ at south facing beaches, with bigger bombs across the Hunter. However with fresh SW winds in general you’ll have to aim for the middle to southern ends which will have the cleanest options, especially across the Hunter where SW winds are more cross-shore than cross-offshore (as they are across the Sydney and Illawarra coasts).

There’s a chance for a few regions to see W/SW winds, but this will likely be south from Wollongong - and perhaps one or two pockets across the Sydney region (i.e. Northern Beaches). Winds should abate throughout the day so conditions will improve into the afternoon.

This south swell will ease into Saturday afternoon and continue a downwards trend into Sunday, however a secondary front wrapping around the core Tasman Low overnight tonight - but positioned further east in the Central Tasman Sea - will generate a secondary S/SE thru' SE swell that should fill in on Sunday morning. 

The models aren’t picking up this feature very well (because of the dominant S’ly swell energy) however I’m pretty confident that we’ll see a slightly broader coverage of clean 4-5ft surf at south faicng beaches early Sunday morning, ahead of an easing trend throughout the day. Again, bigger sets are expected across the Hunter region - not so much because it’s a regional south swell magnet, but this time because it’ll be a little better aligned with the core fetch (which will be aimed towards the Northern NSW Coast).

Beaches will less southerly exposure will be smaller though the ratio probably won't be quite as stark as seen on Saturday. 

Surf size will ease down throughout Sunday afternoon so make the most of the morning for the biggest waves. Conditions should be excellent with light variable winds all day. 

Next week (July 3 onwards)

A tertiary front associated with this slow moving Tasman Low - this time tracking north from a position south of NZ tonight - will generate one final pulse of SE swell that’s expected to arrive on Monday. 

The models have firmed this up a little more since Wednesday, so I’m going to marginally increase the outlook - early morning may see a brief period “between swells” (as the weekend’s S’ly and SE combo abates) but we should see a lift from 2-3ft to 3-4ft throughout the day, mainly at south facing beaches. The Hunter may pick up some bigger bombs.

There is a still a risk of a northerly flow developing as a cold front approaches from the west but in general it’s more likely that the wind will trend N/NW or even NW. So, keep an eye out for possible surface chop but on the balance there should be some very good waves at south friendly beaches (smaller elsewhere). After lunch will be your best option. 

This swell will then ease through Tuesday morning as winds fresh from the west as the front moves across the region and a mid latitude low migrates into the Tasman Sea. Expect clean but rapidly easing surf, becoming less consistent too.

There’s still some south swell potential for the second half of the week, though there’s been a downgrade since Wednesday - only due to the models aligning the winds more “zonally” (or west-east), which is detrimental to our surf prospects (NZ will pick up plenty of W swell from this system!).

I’ll have to revise this outlook on Monday, but at this stage we have a chance for a flukey south swell on Wednesday, originating from W/SW gales existing eastern Bass Strait. However, these swell sources rely critically on the fetch alignment - if it tends any more west, we’ll see no surf at all; but if it veers SW then we’ll see more size.

For now, let’s ballpark occasional 2-3ft sets at a handful of exposed south swell magnets (upper end of this size range in the Hunter). I can’t see there being much surf elsewhere though. 

This swell source is likely to remain active through Wednesday which suggests we could see a similar round of energy through Thursday. Also, the parent low immediately S/SE of Tasmania during this time is expected to set up a secondary source of southerly swell spread for the second half of the week. I don’t like the short fetch length, but I do like its stationary nature. So this could keep south swell magnets humming with small to moderate southerly energy through into the start of next weekend.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!