Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 5th July)

Best Days: No great days. 

Recap: Monday’s SE swell eased steadily through Tuesday and we’ve seen tiny surf across the coast today with light offshore winds. 

This week (July 4 - 7)

The models have slightly weakened the front exiting eastern Bass Strait (for tonight), which has both eased the projected size for the flukey south swell I was expecting later Thursday, and also narrowed the peak of the event into a short timeframe - which will mainly occur overnight Thursday.

Most of Thursday will see continuing tiny conditions across the coast. In fact, some reliable swell magnets may in fact pick up a few fleeting sets from a long range E’ly groundswell generated way out south of Tahiti over the weekend. I mentioned this system in Monday's Queensland notes but omitted it from Southern NSW's notes due to the low chance of anywhere seeing any discernible swell amongst the (expected) building S’ly swell. 

But with the S’ly swell now downgraded, it's now worth mentioning because visible sets out of the east are a greater possibility. This long range source was well and truly tucked inside New Zealand’s swell shadow, but there’s a chance that the long period energy (14-15 seconds) will refract back down into southern NSW and light up perhaps a handful of locations with occasional 1-2ft sets (possible both days). On the balance, I wouldn’t expect any surf from the east over the coming days south of Seal Rocks, but if you do see the odd peeler, this is where it may be sourced from.

But, back to the south swell.

Tonight's developing fetch will slowly strengthen into Thursday morning - this is not a positive factor as it’ll reduce the chance of there being a defined swell front. We’re looking at small levels of southerly swell gradually filling in on Thursday afternoon, perhaps some very occasional 2ft sets at south facing beaches and up to an inconsistent 2-3ft across the Hunter coast on dark. The most size is expected overnight or early Friday morning before it tapers away to tiny conditions into Friday afternoon. Expect smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure.

At least conditions will be clean with offshore winds. 

This weekend (July 8 - 9)

Looks like a flat weekend ahead, almost.

Tiny traces of lingering south swell will probably hang around into Saturday morning but I can’t see much more than 1-1.5ft at south swell magnets, with bugger all elsewhere apart from the chance of a few lingering sets out of the east if we're lucky (this swell will also be easing though).

There’s no new swell on the cards for Sunday either - a small source of south swell mentioned in Monday’s notes for Sunday has been downgraded, so it’s looking both days will deliver grovelly conditions. However they will remain clean with persistent westerlies. 

Next week (July 10th onwards)

A small front pushing east of Tasmania on Sunday may kick up a minor south swell for Monday but it doesn’t look very interesting right now.

A broader, stronger frontal progression trailing behind looks a little more promising for a bigger mid-week south swell (maybe some 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets) but ultimately the models are maintaining a strong zonal pattern which simply isn’t enough to kick up any major size for the East Coast. So, most of next week is looking small at this stage too. More on this in Friday’s notes.