Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 23rd June)

Best Days: Sat AM: make the most of the early offshores and most size from a dropping E'ly swell. Sun: still a chance for a reasonable long period S'ly swell, though only south swell magnets will pick up any size. Late Mon/Tues/Wed: moderate S'ly groundswell. Fri/Sat: strong S'ly swell. 

Recap: As expected, the models were very good for the end of the week estimating wave heights bang on in and around the 4ft mark. There were a couple of reports of bigger sets, and a few locations came in a little under at times, but on the balance it’s been a bloody fantastic run of east swell in Southern NSW this week. 

This weekend (Jun 24 - 25)

The weekend forecast has become a little more complex, from our south swell window.

But let’s quickly address the current E’ly swell. The primary source of this energy (in the eastern Tasman) began to ease yesterday so we’re looking at a steady easing trend through Saturday. Early morning may deliver some stray 2-3ft sets across open beaches but it’ll become smaller and much less consistent throughout the day. 

Conditions will however be clean with moderate to fresh W’ly winds. They may swing S/SW throughout the middle of the day as a front pushes through the lower Tasman Sea but on the whole it’s looking pretty good on the surface. Lighter winds are expected late afternoon. 

These fronts will be related to a recent passage of intense low pressure systems well below the continent, which are expected to generate very large surf for Vic, SA and Tas on Saturday. We will also see swell from this progression in NSW although heavily diluted.

Initially, the front pushing north-east of Tasmania overnight tonight will move into our south swell window around dawn - latest models have the head of the 30kt+ fetch east of Batemans Bay around 7am. 

The new south swell resulting from this fetch is therefore scheduled to arrive mid-late afternoon across Sydney beaches (earlier to the south, later to the north). As such we should see some very late sets across Sydney’s south facing beaches in the 2-3ft range though it’s hard to be especially confident in the timing of this new energy. 

Saturday's fetch will quickly clear to the east, so this south swell is likely to peak overnight (watch for this across the buoys) and then trend down through Sunday. We may see early 2ft, maybe 2-3ft sets across some south facing beaches for a short period right on dawn (bigger in the Hunter) but I confidence is not high that it’ll hang around for very long into the morning, so keep your expectations low for the early Sunday session. Expect smaller waves from this source throughout the day. 

However, at the same time we will start to see new long period south swell building across the coast. But, the models have moved around since Wednesday’s runs. So, the outlook has been downgraded and the confidence level has also dropped quite a bit. 

The reason for this was that Sunday’s surf was initially expected to originate from two sources - a verified 50kt+ fetch off the ice shelf mid-week, which lies in an acute, remote part of our extremely flukey south swell window soutn of WA and SA. This should generate long period energy - maybe 16-18 seconds across the buoys - but the enormous travel distance and the slight swell shadowing of Tasmania will probably shave off a decent percentage of size and consistency. 

The second source of long period south swell was the core fetch around the parent low to the Fri/Sat cold front (the northern extent of which will generate Sat's pulse of mid-range S’ly swell). Unfortunately, the latest models have weakened this part of the low so we won’t be seeing any new energy from this region.

As such we’ll be relying exclusively on the long period energy from the ice shelf - which is a bloody hard swell window to have confidence in. We have seen a couple of south swells from this region throughout the last year perform well above expectations - and with our model estimating 0.6m@ 16.2 seconds on Sunday morning, we certainly can’t discount the prospects for occasional long lined southerly lines across Southern NSW. But I am really not willing to recommend anything as these flukey swells often light up just a handful of beaches at best. And with these odds there’s a fair chance they’ll be all of the beaches you won’t be at.

But... I gotta put something out there so I’ll go with VERY inconsistent 3ft sets - perhaps one wave affairs - every fifteen to twenty minutes, at south facing beaches. Max size is more likely in the afternoon than in the morning. And it’ll be super clean with all-day offshores. But I am certainly not very confident for Sunday's surf outlook. And our wave model doesn't like Sunday's potemtial very much at all. 

Let’s see what happens, eh? 

Next week (Jun 26 onwards)

We’ve got another frontal passage through the lower Tasman Sea early next week that should provide some solid waves through late Monday, Tuesday and early Wednesday.

It’s been downgraded a bit since Monday’s update but south facing beaches should still pull in some 4ft sets. 

Beyond that and a similarly strong front is expected through the lower Tasman Sea sometime Thursday which suggests a large south swell rebuilding through Friday and Saturday. More on that in Monday’s update.

Have a great weekend!