Into next week and we’ll see a new high pressure system set up a SE surge as we move into the Easter weekend.
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Pretty typical late Summer pattern with a high in the Tasman and a maturing trade-wind flow in the Coral Sea, linked to an active monsoon trough with a small embedded low in the Coral Sea. There is a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria which formed over the weekend but this system is expected to track inland over the NT and Kimberley regions and not be a swell source for the East Coast.
We’ve still got a broad trade wind flow in the Coral Sea, extending out into the South Pacific and anchored head and tail by low pressure along the monsoon trough. That’s producing plenty of surf in the sub-tropics although we’ll now see a slow easing trend into the end of the week.
We’ve still got our late Summer pattern next week with high pressure straddling New Zealand, a monsoon trough strung across Northern Australia extending into the South Pacific and a long, broad tradewind fetch between the two broadscale atmospheric features.
We currently have a weaker cell in the Tasman, with a much stronger cell entering the Bight. This dominant high pressure belt will set up a long, broad tradewind fetch through the Coral Sea, extending at times into the Northern Tasman and South Pacific.
We should see rideable surf develop through Wed as a SE surge builds across the region and extends out into the Coral Sea.
Tradewinds start to thicken up from the Coral Sea into the Northern Tasman so we should see some E/SE swell start to build, possibly as early as Thurs.
We’ll see a new high move into the Tasman next week with healthier looking tradewind flow in the Coral Sea.
Further ahead and we should see high pressure become slow moving in the Tasman next week. A moderate trade-flow looks to set up in the Coral Sea, with workable trade-wind swells across CQ for the second half of next week. Either way, nothing dramatic in the tropics on the radar, so we’ll come back Wed and see how it’s looking.
Not much else on the radar after that- looks like a very quiet start to Autumn with some small/tiny days to end next week and enter the first weekend of March.