ECMWF has a slightly stronger tradewind style fetch extending southwards from the tropics into the Central Coral Sea by mid next week.
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With all the action down south the Coral Sea is in a classic mid-winter flat spell and will remain so right through this week and into next week.
No swell generating winds in the swell window so we’ll see flat surf for all of this week.
The trough block scenario is reaching maximum strength but moving southwards as it does so. We’ll see a slight kick in size tomorrow for CQ then waves steadily easing over the rest of the weekend, going back to tiny and then flat next week as a cold outbreak brings W’ly Simonds to the Coral Sea.
An inland trough eventually clears the coast later Tues or Wed and the broad E’ly infeed into the trough transforms a typical but out of season tradewind fetch into a more broadscale “trough block” feature which will send swell to most of the Eastern Seaboard.
A small trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is moving north and the broad fetch aimed at CQ will maintain coverage in the Coral Sea so expect plenty of fun surf over the weekend.
High pressure moves into the Tasman next week, setting up a broad E’ly flow, initially in the Coral Sea and then extending into the South pacific and Northern Tasman.
The synoptic pattern looks unseasonal with a huge, slow moving high in the Bight, expected to be reinforced by another cell to create a blocking pattern below the continent and maintain a long lasting ridge up the Eastern Seaboard this week with a healthy trade flow developing in the Coral Sea later this weekend.
There’s just enough strength in the Coral Sea trade fetch to supply some small/tiny waves on low tides into the weekend.
A sub-tropical low north of the North Island scooted away to the SE over the weekend and as a result the long range E/SE swell is likely to be closer to 1-2ft than 3ft with just the occ bigger set across open Burnett coast exposures.