Further ahead and the tropics remains active with a long monsoon trough extending from the Coral Sea out into the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Strongest winds are the monsoonal surge nor-westers along the top of the trough but there are signs more favourable E’ly winds will develop along the bottom of the trough later next week, favouring sub-tropical regions for small E swell either later next weekend to into the week 5/2
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2024/01/26/low-energy
freeride76
Friday, 26 January 2024
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2024/01/24/not-much-all-tc
freeride76
Wednesday, 24 January 2024
After an extended period of eyes on the tropics there’s not too much to get excited about as the current E swell event winds down. We’re still waiting for TC Kirrily to form (already called by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre) and when it does it’s expected to take a straight SW-W/SW track into the NQ coast, crossing around Townsville tomorrow evening. No swell of any significance is expected from this system south of the border- with only marginal N/NE swells showing at a few spots in QLD (mostly north of K’gari (Fraser Is))
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2024/01/22/tc-now-expected
freeride76
Monday, 22 January 2024
All the headline action is in the tropics with a cyclone (TC Kirrily) expected to form within the next 24-36hrs in the monsoon trough NE of Cairns. A coastal crossing in N.QLD now looks the most likely outcome with limited surf potential for our region, at least in the short/medium term.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2024/01/19/plenty-fun-waves
freeride76
Friday, 19 January 2024
A compact low is tracking SE away from Tasmania with a nice slingshot fetch in the process of entering the Tasman adjacent to the Apple Isle. A retrograding fetch in the South Pacific is currently active and expected to send some fun surf our way over the weekend and into early next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2024/01/17/e-swell-and-light
freeride76
Wednesday, 17 January 2024
In the South Pacific we have a retrograding trough of low pressure along a tradewind band and finally, the Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) is in full swing and a tropical low is expected to bud off the end of the monsoon trough into and over the weekend, with a reasonable likelihood of cyclogenesis into next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2024/01/15/another-round
freeride76
Monday, 15 January 2024
Very active pattern to start the week with a large high (1029hPa) moving E of Tasmania with a SE surge enhanced by a trough along the leading edge of the high, and active Monsoon Trough extending in to the Coral Sea and an approaching complex low well to the SW of Tasmania. Add in a long tradewind fetch in the South Pacific. All these features are potential sources of surf in the short to medium term.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2024/01/12/plenty-surf
freeride76
Friday, 12 January 2024
A monsoon trough sits over Northern Australia terminating in the Coral Sea, with a strong high moving into the Tasman to start next week. The resulting SE surge up through the Tasman into the Coral Sea generates plenty of swell as the fetch spreads out across the Tasman.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2024/01/10/boost-in-e-swell
freeride76
Wednesday, 10 January 2024
The compact low near Tasmania is now skipping away to the SE with a large high SE of the South Island (1034 hPa) interacting with a broad low pressure trough in the South Pacific which will supply E’ly quadrant swell in the near term as the low pressure trough retrogrades back towards the east coast.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2024/01/08/fun-sized-ely
freeride76
Monday, 8 January 2024
Once the Tasmania low clears there picture we’ll see monsoonal activity develop through the South Pacific/Coral Sea, likely with a broad area of low pressure squeezing pressure gradients along a long fetch between the North Island and near Island chains and retrograding back towards the East coast through the second half of this week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2024/01/05/another-fun-round
freeride76
Friday, 5 January 2024
Surf-wise the fetch off the top of the high and a broad troughy area, holds another round of E’ly quadrant swell in the 2-3ft range, very similar to the last round. Quality will be wind affected but we should see light enough winds in the morning for glassy lightly wind affected surf.
