South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, fun S/SE swell Thurs with SW winds in the AM tending SE
• S groundswell Fri with light winds, favouring NENSW S facing beaches
• Sizey S swell on the cards later Sat, into Sun with fresh S winds
• More S swells next week, with S-SE winds- check back Fri for latest revisions

Recap

Mix of swell trains yesterday as a low hovered in the Tasman- mostly S angled (S/SE) with some more SE’ly angled swells also in the mix and size in the 3ft range with the occ. bigger set. Conditions were standard for the season with morning offshores and S/SE winds in the a’noon. Size has eased a notch today with 2 occ. 3ft sets and light Sw-S breezes tending mod SE’ly  through the day. 

Size was down but still the odd fun peak around if you could find a quality bank

This week (May 15-17)

The coastal low has drifted off, dragging a weak front with it, and we’re seeing a large high move over NSW before entering the Tasman later this week. That’ll will see settled conditions and light winds for temperate NSW with a weak ridge and SE winds for sub-tropical areas. Frontal activity passing to the south will send some S swell up the pipe.

The headline news is a strong front which will trigger a low-pressure trough o/night Fri into Sat. Backed by a strong high we’ll see very tight coastal pressure gradients with strong to potentially gale force S’lies Sat and a large windy S swell. Further frontal activity early next week looks to supply more sizey S swells. Looks like an active, windy week ahead.

In the short run, we’ll see mod SE winds tomorrow with good odds for a morning land breeze (W/SW-SW) across most of the region apart from the Sunshine Coast. Small kick in S/SE swell from the passage of the low and front will see a few 3ft sets across the region, a notch smaller in SEQLD apart from the best swell magnets and Northern Corners.

Similar winds for Fri, although the ridge weakens further with the approach of the front and trough so we should see winds tend to light/variable in the a’noon, possibly even offshore south of Yamba. Small swells to start, in the 1-2ft range but by lunch-time there’ll be some long period S swell making landfall, offering up some 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW, possibly showing before dark across the border. 

This weekend (May18-19)

Strong winds to potential S’ly gales look to develop o/night Fri into Sat off the NSW Coast as the low pressure trough deepens offshore and a strong high moves into the Bight. These winds look to reach the border by mid morning with lighter SW breezes early.  If this holds, we’ll see a calm  ocean at first light with windy S swells pushing up the coast mid-late morning on the MNC, a’noon across the North Coast and just showing across the border later a’noon. It’s not going to be massive due to the localised fetch but we should see small surf early, building to 4-6ft in NENSW with bigger surf at exposed river bars. 

Wild and windy Sunday with fresh/strong S’lies and raw and ragged S swell to 6-8ft, bigger 10ft at exposed breaks and smaller 3-5ft at SEQLD S exposed breaks. Expect lots of paddling and side shore current in NENSW with smaller surf into more protected north facing Points and Bays. 

Next week (May 20 onwards)

As per Mondays notes, frontal intrusions into the Tasman abd below Tasmania will bring S swells most of next week, potentially moderate/sizey in dimension and with accompanying SW-S winds .

Monday should see easing swells and W-SW tending S winds as a front sweeps into the Tasman. Expect 4-5ft of surf at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD, best in the morning with the land breeze adding the to the SW synoptic flow.

By Tues we should be on the up again, with size building to 3-5ft through the a’noon and holding through Thurs. We won’t put too much stock into these specifics because there is still a chance we could see low pressure develop in the eastern Tasman (as per the EC resolution) which would see better quality S/SE swells from mid next week.

It will be an active week and by the end of it we should see high pressure near Tasmania suggesting continuing S-SE winds into next weekend. 

Like all troughy patterns in the Tasman, especially this time of year, expect revisions as we get nearer to the event.

Check back Fri for the latest updates.