South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri May 31st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun weekend of E/NE swells across most coasts
• New S/SE swell for the MNC on Sun
• Winds becoming NW in most areas Sat, though SW developing MNC
• Generally SW winds for Sunday with clean beachies
• Plenty of swell for next week too with a similar E/NE and S swell combo, under offshore winds

Recap

Easing south swell on Thursday across Northern NSW didn’t offer much surf north of the border. Today has seen building trade swells across the region, biggest in the north, with more size on the way.

This weekend (Jun 1 - 2)

A broad high pressure system in the north-eastern Tasman Sea has a reasonable trade flow atop its northern flank, and is generating a new E/NE swell that will build in size today then peak Saturday before easing Sunday. Size should hold somewhere in the 3ft, maybe 3-4ft range across most open coasts.

However, as the high slides to the east and a lingering coastal trough off Southern NSW slowly evolves into a closed circulation (before tracking south into Sun/Mon), we’ll see a broader E/NE fetch develop on the western flank of the Tasman high (see below). This will provide additional E/NE energy into Sunday, though probably not any bigger than the pre-existing trade swell, perhaps just an increase in the surf’s consistency as the swell trains overlap.

Our third swell source for the weekend is the developing low off Southern NSW (mentioned above, also see chart above) which will generate S/SE winds aimed up into the Mid North Coast on Saturday, providing some surf into Sunday, around 3-4ft at south facing beaches - though we may not see much energy penetrate north of about Coffs or Yamba.

The main factor to work around this weekend will be the winds. 

Lingering northerlies are a risk early Saturday at a handful of exposed regions (i.e. those parts of the coast that geographically extend further to the east than others) though the trend will be to the NW through the day so the afternoon at least - if not earlier - should offer very nice waves across most open beaches. 

The lower Mid North Coast will probably see S/SW tending SW winds encroach the region on Saturday as the trough starts to develop off Southern NSW. A general SW flow will then influence remaining regions into Sunday, though wind speeds will be lighter in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld.

Next week (Jun 3 onwards)

We’ve got some great waves in store for next week.

Model guidance is a little divergent, but right now my optimism is seeing the E/NE fetch in the northern Tasman holding through the weekend and generating useful swell from this direction through the first half of the week with size around 3-4ft at exposed beaches, perhaps a little smaller as we start to head north of the border.

Additionally, the low off Southern NSW is a tricky synoptic proposition but various incarnations from Sunday through Wednesday should provide a wide range of direct S/SE thru’ sideband S/SW swell across south facing beaches (south of Byron) through the first half of the week. South swell magnets should manage anywhere from 4-6ft (MNC) to 3-4ft (Far Northern NSW) on Monday before easing through Tuesday and Wednesday.

I don’t think we’ll see much southerly swell north of the border though, away from the handful of reliable swell magnets.

Local winds are also looking for the first half of next week, as we see a general W/SW outflow across the top of the coastal low. The breeze may become a little blustery across the Mid North Coast but overall it’s shaping up to a nice run of surf for most open beaches.

The second half of the week has plenty of potential for more south swell (favouring Northern NSW in the size department), with lingering troughiness along the Southern NSW coastal margin likely to evolve into another low pressure system, especially if it merges with a series of frontal systems approaching from the south-west.