South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun, easing SE swell continues into Thurs with SW-S winds
• S groundswell showing Thurs at S facing beaches in NENSW
• Easing swells Fri, small bump in SE swell possible in the a’noon with lighter SW-S winds
• Light S-SE winds over the weekend with S/SE swell and some S’ly groundswell
• Stronger S/SE groundswell Mon into Tues with light winds
• S-SE winds continue into next week with surfable days on tap but nothing sizey  
• Fun E/NE trade swell likely to develop into next weekend

Recap

Surf came in a bit under expectations yesterday, especially in SEQLD with size to 2-4ft at S exposed breaks and small peelers on the Points. NENSW saw a nice pulse of swell to 4ft from mid morning and a few nice sets until dark. Size has dropped back to 3ft today at exposed breaks with morning SW breezes now tending mod S’ly, the same pattern as we’ve had all week. 

Clean mornings with workable SE swells

This week (May 22-24)

Dominant high pressure has ever so slowly drifted NE up over the Victorian/NSW interior, with winds slowly easing as the low which was in the Tasman exits stage left and the ridge start to ease. Another reinforcing high cell moves in from the Bight later this week, with a small trough off the NSW coast disrupting the S’ly flow. Local swell sources dry up but polar lows better aimed at Pacific targets will send some long period S swell up the pipe over the weekend and early next week before a more subdued outlook takes hold.

In the short run we’ll see easing swells through tomorrow morning, with a small blend of S/SE around to SE swells holding 2ft (occ. 3footer) surf at exposed breaks.  Through the day some long period S swell generated by polar low should make landfall across NENSW with some 3-4ft sets. Cleaner conditions should be more widespread as the ridge breaks down and local pressure gradients ease, allowing a longer offshore period through the morning before mod S’lies kick in. 

Similar winds Fri so nice and clean at least until mid-late morning. Small again, with just a minor SE swell to 2ft at best across exposed stretches. We may see just a small bump in size in the a’noon as a fetch lingering near the South Island sends some SE swell our way. No great size but keep an eye out for a few 2-3ft sets.

This weekend (May25-26)

A small trough we mentioned in Mon now looks to stall out off the Central NSW Coast this weekend, bringing a light/variable tending SE flow even through a high sits near Tasmania. Thats good news for local surf conditions with morning W-SW offshore breezes tending to light S-SE breezes in the a’noon. Long period S swell in the 14-16 second period band should offer up some 2occ. 3ft sets at S facing beaches across NENSW Sat a’noon with small residual swells to 2ft or less in SEQLD.

Similar winds Sun with lingering clean conditions well into the late morning or lunchtime. S groundswell looks to be a smidge bigger than Sat with more consistent 3ft sets at S facing beaches and reliable magnets in NENSW. Much smaller away from S facing beaches.

SEQLD will continue to see a small mix of swells to 2ft with the occ. long period S set to 2ft at S facing beaches.

Next week (May 27 onwards)

High pressure finally moves into the Tasman early next week so we should see light winds to start the week. S-S/SE groundswell from the slowed forward movement of a polar low gyre as it enters the New Zealand corridor should send some nice 3 occ. 4ft sets to S facing beaches in NENSW with SEQLD seeing some 2-3ft sets at S exposed breaks due to the better swell angle. Expect a wait for sets.

A weak front later Mon may supply some small S swell into late Tues, along with S groundswell. Winds should be good, offshore tending to a’noon SE breezes. We’ll finesse the size and timing of these swells on Fri.

Light winds should occupy the rest of next week. Small S swell from the front and a poorly aligned fetch near NZ send some more small S-S/SE swell our way later Thurs - likely to be in the 2-3ft range.

Looks like fun trade swells from the E/NE into next weekend as high pressure moves into the Central Tasman, with a trade flow in the Coral Sea sending some small E-E/NE swell to the sub-tropics likely in the 2-3ft range.

We’ll see how it’s looking on Fri.

Seeya then.