South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun sized mix of E/NE and S swells Tues, easing a notch in the a’noon
• Smaller but still fun E/NE swells Wed
• Offshore winds Tues-Thurs with patches of NE seabreeze
• Potential rebuild in E/NE swell Fri into the weekend 
• Potential for new kick in S swell later this weekend and into next week
• Wintry pattern ahead later next week with offshore winds and S swells

Recap

Dynamic weekend unfolded as a trough off low pressure formed and deepened off the Central NSW Coast, moving generally S by S/SW over the weekend and intensifying. Small to start on Sat with N’ly winds and E/NE swell to 2ft. Buy the late a’noon winds had switched NW and a few places had cleaned up. Sunday was a much better day with clean E/NE swell to 3ft (occ. 4ft set) and offshore winds under sunny skies. Similar conditions today but we’ve seen extra S swell from the low add some 3ft energy- adding up to some delightful 3-4ft peaks in NENSW, a notch smaller in SEQLD where S swell is more negligible. 

E/NE swells Sun were well angled for some of the Points

This week (Jun 3-7)

At 6am the coastal low is tucked in very close to the NSW/Victorian border with gales aimed primarily at Gippsland and NE Tasmania. A trough line connected to the low remains angled SW/NE in the Tasman with a N-N/NE infeed along the trough line. With the movement of the low into the coast, winds on the southern flank are now out of the swell window so we’ll be  relying on the NE infeed into the trough and potential small lows forming in the trough line for swells in the short term once the current S'ly swell fades out. Models are suggesting remnants of the low eventually move back into more central parts of the  Tasman and redevelop as frontal activity sweeps in later this week. Still a lot of model divergence on that scenario so expect plenty of revisions this week.

In the short run we should see all day offshores through tomorrow , and most of Wed as the low remnants linger off the Tasmanian/Gippsland coast. A few light patches of NE seabreeze may develop in SEQLD but it shouldn’t amount to much.  S/SE swell will drop right down in the mix, just a few 2-3footers tomorrow, with E/NE swell holding to 3ft, easing in the a’noon.

Expect that swell to ease into Wed morning with surf levelling off to an inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft. Depending on how the low remnants behave we may see winds shift more S’ly Wed a’noon across the MNC, remaining mostly variable to light N’ly across the rest of the region. Either way there should be some fun waves around on the beachies.

Model divergence makes the second half of the week look very tricky. The low may continue to hug the Gippsland coast leading to SW winds and small surf. GFS suggests the low moving offshore and redeveloping, possibly joined by another trough of low pressure moving down from the sub-tropics. That may generate another round of fun E/NE swell from winds infeeding into the trough/low (see below). If that happens, we’d see a spike in new E/NE swell Fri into the 3 occ. 4ft range

We’ll also pencil in some sort of rebuild in S-SE swell from the southern flank of a low either late this week or into the weekend. Definitely low confidence in specifics so if you can wait until Wed before making plans that would be prudent.

This weekend (Jun 8 - 9)

As per previous paragraph confidence is low on specifics for the weekend but there’s good odds we’ll see a mix of E/NE and S swell, either bog standard frontal 3-4ft or a juicier 4-5ft with SW-S winds depending on how the low pressure situation resolves in the Tasman. Check back Wed and we’ll dial in specifics.

Next week (Jun 10 onwards)

Looks like we’ll see the first winter front sweep up across the SE of the country with winds likely to tend fresh W’ly (possibly pre-frontal NW) early next week.

Expect moderate levels of whatever S-SE swells we have on tap into Mon or Tues with offshore winds (likely NW-W/NW).

The first in a series of fronts is likely to be very zonal so only small S swells are expected.

A following front is showing signs of being much better aligned for swell production at this early stage so we may see a winter style S swell later next week.

We have to get through the current period of dynamic instability in the Tasman so expect some revisions when we come back Wed.

In the meantime enjoy the offshore winds.
Seeya Wed.