South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon May 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S/SE groundswell holds into Tues with light winds
• Small fun blend of S swells Wed with light winds tending E’ly
• Fun E/NE trade swell likely to develop Thurs into the weekend 
• Potential trough now deepening off NSW coast this weekend likely to see winds shift offshore and swells from the E through SE from Sun into early next week - low confidence on specifics check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Nice conditions over the weekend with morning offshores lingering into light/mod S-SE winds. S swell pulses kept surf zones active in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD with size to 2ft Sat morning, building to 2-3ft in the a’noon. Sun saw some 4ft sets at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. Today is continuing in the 3-4ft range in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD with another pulse expected to fill in during the day.

Plenty of energy in the sets at S exposed breaks in NENSW

This week (May 27-31)

Lovely late autumn conditions as high pressure drifts across NSW bringing light winds and settled conditions through the first half of the week. A pair of weak cold fronts are expected to pass over Tasmania in the short term, generating small S swells which will overlap with the last pulses coming from the polar low now SE of New Zealand. A dynamic, troughy pattern looks set to unfold over the weekend. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see sweet autumn conditions continuing through tomorrow with light offshore winds for the morning, tending to light a’noon S-SE breezes. A mix of mid and longer period S swell trains should hold 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets.

By Wed we’ll see high pressure moving NE into the Tasman, building a ridge up the QLD coast and generating SE winds in SEQLD, tending more E’ly through the day south of Tweed-Byron. Early light winds from the SW will tend SE’ly and tend light E’ly in NENSW. Mostly mid period S/SE swells to 3ft will be on offer from an off axis fetch near NZ (see below), best at S facing beaches in NENSW and smaller 2ft or so in SEQLD.

By Thurs we’ll start to see some small E/NE tradeswell showing across the region. Building to 2-3ft in SEQLD during the day, smaller in NENSW. S swells will still be hanging on in the 2-3ft range in NENSW. Light winds early will tend light E’ly in the a’noon, a notch stronger on the Sunshine Coast.

Pre-frontal N’lies kick in Fri with small E/NE tradeswell and NE windswell providing a small mix of swells to 3ft and offering up some fun at backbeaches as winds shift N. Conditions should be clean enough for the early under light winds across most of the region. 

This weekend (June 1-2)

Interesting weekend ahead and it’s likely we’ll be revising further as we go through the week due to model divergence as they struggle to resolve a troughy/dynamic pattern.

A front passing over Tasmania is likely to bring a NW tending W’ly flow through Sat so conditions are looking groomed for the day. NE-E/NE swell from the top of the high, mixed with some small leftover S/SE swell should hold some fun 3-4ft surf through Sat.

Sun looks a different story. We mentioned on Fri a trough deepening off the QLD coast. Models are now favouring a trough moving off the NSW South Coast and deepening, possibly later Sat or into Sun. Depending on the positioning of the trough and a potential surface low (or lows) we could see winds shifting SW with increased NE-E/NE swell from winds infeeding into the low(ECMWF resolution) or offshore winds and small swells building later in the day or into Mon (GFS). Confidence in model outputs is low so check back Wed for updates. 

Next week (June 3 onwards)

Uncertain outlook due to the model divergence over the weekend. It’s likely we will see S/SE-SE swell of some significance early next week as the trough or potential low or even multiple low centres drift SE across the Tasman. These short range features look to dominate the Tasman early next week with the main southern storm track continuing to develop in the NZ corridor aimed at Pacific targets.

Models have been all over the place over the weekend and with such poor run to run and model to model consistency we’ll need to watch and wait for guidance into next week before we can have any reasonable confidence in the surf outlook.

Check back Wed and we’ll update with all the latest information.

Seeya then.