South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Low point in energy Thurs with small surf and freshening onshore winds
• Fun E/NE trade swell likely to develop Fri into the weekend 
• N/NW winds Sat, with a S-SW change reaching Coffs coast lunch-time as low forms off NSW Central Coast, later a’noon for North Coast
• Offshore winds Sun with fun waves
• Offshore winds with small fun waves Mon-Wed
• We may see some S/SE swell into next weekend as low forms in Tasman, check back Fri for latest updates
• Potential trough now deepening off NSW coast this weekend likely to see winds shift offshore and swells from the E through SE from Sun into early next week - low confidence on specifics check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Dreamy conditions and what seems like endless lines of ruled edged S-S/SE swell continued through yesterday in the 3-4ft range (smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD) with some great surf to be had if you could find somewhere handling the long lines. Today is definitely on the eases with smaller lines to 3-4ft at S exposed breaks in NENSW (2ft in SEQLD) and light winds tending E’ly through the day. A very nice run of long range S-S/SE groundswell for quite a few places in the region, favouring NENSW for size and quality.

Still some size and energy on the sets

This week (May 29-31)

The polar low which provided such a run of S’ly groundswell  is now well out of the picture and while we wait for those swells to strike Tahiti we’ve got a few smaller and unseasonal NE’ly days to get through before a dynamic weekend pattern unfolds. The gist of it is large high moving into the Tasman with an approaching trough and cut-off low. The low sweeps to the south this weekend while the trough buds off and forms a trough of low pressure off the NSW Central/South coast, bringing weather, onshore winds and increased swell before the clearing offshore winds arrive late in the weekend. Details below. 

In the short run we’ll see E’ly-E/NE winds freshen and to be honest, looks ordinary with onshore winds and small swells. You’ll find a few S leftovers to 2-3ft at S facing beaches early under light winds before onshores get up Wirth some minor E/NE tradeswell to 2ft in the a’noon.

Fri looks a better bet for backbeaches. We’ll see a slightly stronger signal of E/NE swell to 2-3ft, early, building to 3 occ. 4ft later in the day. with NE tending N’ly winds which will see a few fun options at backbeaches, blown out elsewhere.

This weekend (June 1-2)

Under current modelling, by first light Sat morning a trough of low pressure will be deepening due east of the Illawarra with N’ly winds across the sub-tropics. That trough will brings S’ly change to the MNC mid morning but looks to slow and not reach the far North Coast (Ballina-Byron) until late in the day and the border after dark. Surf-wise we’ll see plenty of E/NE-NE swell to 3-4ft with the occ. bigger set especially south of Yamba. Winds should swing N/NW-NW through the day so improving conditions are expected, at backbeaches most notably.

Sun definitely has some potential for fun waves. The trough of low pressure is expected to form a surface low and track SSW towards the Gippsland Coast/Bass Strait (SE into the Tasman would have been better!). Once the low axis moves south of an area winds will swing offshore and that should see all day offshore for most of the region, early W-SW, tending W/NW-W through the day. Clean E/NE swell from the infeed into the low supplies 3-4ft surf with a slight easing trend during the a’noon.

Next week (June 3 onwards)

Monday is looking good. With the low near Bass Strait we should have an offshore outflow across most of the region- so offshore winds all day. A fun blend of S-S/SE and E/NE swells with the E/NE dominant should see more 2-3ft surf. Should be plenty of fun beachies around.

Similar surf Tues as the low sits off the South Coast. Winds remain offshore so expect some small fun surf Tues and Wed in the 2-3ft range.

Models do suggest the low moves out into the Tasman finally, so we should eventually see some S/SE-SE swell after this occurs. Still some model divergence there, and hopefully we’ll have a full strength low in the Tasman next week. It currently looks fairly weak so we’re on track for surf to build later Fri into Sat the 3ft range. Winds will depend on the position of the low but we are likely to have a period of S/SE-SE winds late next week as high pressure moves towards Tasmania.

Like all troughy periods and lows we’ll expect revisions through the short term so make sure you check back Fri for the latest look before the weekend.

Seeya then.