An approaching inland trough will freshen northerlies about most coasts on Sunday, so make the most of Saturday.
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We’ve got building trade swells for the next few days, and a weakening synoptic pattern in the north, that will result in light variable winds and sea breezes in most northern areas.
I like the look of these weather charts.
Wednesday is where we’ll start to see a gradual increase in new trade swell from a broad easterly fetch developing from this weekend onwards.
The rest of the week looks very ordinary for SE Qld, mainly due to a freshening northerly flow.
We're now at the peak of the swell cycle from STC Jasper so it's a slow dowards trend for the rest of the week.
It’s slow (2-3kts) S/SW track between 158-156E is in the acute N/NE swell window- even though that part of the window tends to be flukey due to interference from reefs and it’s reliance on a perfect track to clear Fraser and the Breaksea Spit. That aids confidence in some steeply angled N/NE-NE groundswell from STC Jasper over the weekend.
TC Jasper has formed in water surrounding the Solomon Islands and is intensifying under favourable conditions. Most models now are suggesting a SW-W curvature as it enters the Coral Sea, with a smaller surf potential compared to Mondays notes as it crosses the coast instead of tracking through the Coral Sea.
Weak high pressure in the Tasman and a trough is creating a “doldrums” type pattern of slack pressure gradients and small swells this week, with a few wind changes to negotiate. No major swells expected this week. The headline feature is a potential major tropical cyclone drifting into the Coral Sea with a poleward (southwards) track late this week, over the weekend and into next week.
Further ahead and some weather model runs are starting to look pretty damn juicy with respect to a developing TC in the South Pacific moving into the Coral Sea later next week. Still very early days but a full blown cyclone swell is now a definite possibility, possibly as early as next weekend and into the week 9/12