South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon August 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing E/SE swells Tues (last day of it) with light NW-N winds and an a’noon SW change across NENSW
• Small, minor swells Wed-Fri with light S-SE winds 
• Increasing SE winds on the weekend with building short range swells 
• Summer style full strength E’ly trade swell next week with winds favouring the Points
• Winds may swing more E-NE from mid next week

Recap

Great weekend of waves (if you could find a good bank) as reinforcing E/SE and SE swells held size to 4-5 occ 6ft on Sat, easing to mostly 3 occ. 4ft on Sun. Conditions were good with offshore winds in the morning and light seabreezes Sat, with a late, light SE breeze on Sun . Mostly clean again this morning with 2 occ. 3ft sets on offer to add to the long tail of this swell event.

Still heaps of size on Sat.

This week (Aug 5-9)

We’ve got weak high pressure in the Tasman and a trough and north-west cloud band linked to Indian Ocean moisture. Pressure gradients will stay weak in our proximate and medium range spheres of influence so as the current E/SE swell ebbs away we’re in for a quiet spell on the surf front. Models are now in broad agreement that over this weekend and into next week, we’ll see a strong, broad and deep E’ly flow develop in the Coral Sea and near South Pacific. Initially this will favour sub-tropical regions for size (at least a chunky tradewind swell) with swell trains eventually propagating down to more temperate regions as next well rolls on. A complete 180 degree reversal from the dominant winter pattern and huge Tasman Low event we just experienced. Read on for details.

In the short run and we’ll be on the last dregs of this swell with mostly 2ft surf and just a chance of the occ. 3ft set in the morning before it dribbles away to 2ft or less in the a’noon. A weak, troughy S’ly change extending up the coast will see morning NW-N winds tend N’ly before the change reaches the MNC around lunch-time, Northern Rivers in the a’noon and just tickles the border before dark. North of there will see light/mod N’ly winds. 

We’ll see a couple of days of small, weak surf following. Likely bottoming out through Tues and Wed in the 1 occ. 2ft range and suitable for beginners and logs. Light/mod winds through Wed with morning offshores a’noon SE breezes. 

Similar for Thurs with a more established SE flow expected as high pressure sets up a ridge along the sub-tropical coast. We may see some small SE windswell in the mix through Thurs but this will top out at 2ft at best.

Not much change into Fri with a weak SE flow and a small blend of SE windswell and faint background E swells to 1-2ft offering a log wave on the Points and a few small beachies. 

This weekend (Aug 10-11)

We’ll start to see the S-SE flow strengthen over the weekend, initially bringing a slight increase in SE local windswell through Sat mixed with some minor mid period S swell. That should offer up some 2 occ. 3ft surf across NENSW, a notch smaller in SEQLD. Early conditions should be clean with SW breezes before winds clock around S/SE-SE at mod paces.

Strengthening onshore flow Sun as the high cell starts to strengthen and the wind field extends across the Coral Sea. Most of the juice will be next week but by Sun a’noon we should see SE-E/SE swell building into the 3ft range. With beachies blown out it’ll be small peelers on the Points offering up the best of it. 

Next week (Aug 12 onwards)

By Mon we’re expecting a deep E’ly flow to have established through our near South Pacific Island chains and extending into the Coral Sea (see below), possibly with an embedded trough or E’ly dip through the Coral Sea. This Summer pattern is expected to generate sizey E’ly swells for the sub-tropics under SE-E winds, at least for the first half of the week.

Through Mon we should see swells building from the E/SE-E into the 4ft range and with fresh SE winds it’ll be classic summer Points pattern.

Into the mid week and we should see some real size about as the persistent E’ly winds generate a fully developed sea state through our near swell window.

Typically that pattern and fully developed sea state builds surf into the 4-6ft range across eastern exposures, grading smaller into the more sheltered inner Points. Winds look a bit iffy though as the high moves eastwards, tending more E and then E/NE-NE through mid week. 

That’s still over a week away so we’ve got plenty of time to dial in size and winds but confidence in the general pattern is high due to the model agreement. 

We’ll come back Wed and have a fresh look at it.

Seeya then.