South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon August 12th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large stormy E-E/NE swell Tues/Wed with onshore winds through the peak of the swell Tues/Wed
• S’ly change Thurs as swells ease through Thurs/Fri
• Not much this weekend, a few fun waves Sat, looking tiny on Sun
• Increasing S/SE swells Mon as trough of low pressure deepens in Tasman
• S/SE swells holding Tues with SW-S winds
• Likely easing swells from mid next week- check back Wed for latest revisions 

Recap

Nothing major over the weekend but a few small waves provided some fun. Sat saw surf from the S/SE-E with 2ft sets- a few 3 footers at better magnets- with light winds and clean conditions through the morning before mod/fresh SE winds kicked in. Similar on Sun although SE winds kicked in earlier as a trough formed on the QLD coast. Today is seeing widespread onshore winds and rain and building E’ly swells. Nowhere is clean and the best of it is probably some raggedy point surf with size building to 3-4ft.

Looks like a lay day to me but it is surfable

This week (Aug12-16)

You would not think it was August after looking at the synoptic charts. We have a strong (1033hPa) high in the Tasman, with a deep E’ly flow through the Coral Sea feeding into a coastal trough along the QLD coast. That trough is drawing down plenty of tropical moisture in the deep onshore flow, and generating sizey, stormy E’ly swells for the sub-tropics.  We should get a favourable wind change later this week but we’ll be on the backside of the swell event. Further ahead and weather models have really been struggling to resolve the remnants of the troughy pattern in the Tasman over the weekend. It does look like some sort of re-strengthening will occur with a S-SE flow generating swells from that direction in the medium term, although plenty of revision is likely as we move through the week.

In the short run we’ll that E’ly flow strengthen through tomorrow even tending E/NE-NE south of Byron. Solid stormy E swells should build to 5-6ft but with straight onshore winds you’ll be struggling to find a decent wave even at the most sheltered points. Backbeaches south of Yamba will probably have the best odds for some kind of rideable wave.

Similar for Wed with large stormy E swells pummelling the coast, likely even up a notch into the 6 occ. 8ft range. Winds do tend more NE on Wed, so we may see some solid, but raw and surfable waves on select backbeaches.  A trough is pushing up the coast and we may see a late wind shift to the NW across the lower edge of the MNC, although there is model variance there and it’s a low percentage play at this point. 

Thursday looks a better bet for a wind change with the trough bringing a  morning N tending W-NW flow before winds swing SE at light paces. Those winds may be fine-tuned on Wed but there’s medium confidence we will see a morning swing to offshore winds. Surf will be easing in size as the trough dissipates and the fetch starts to wind down quickly. Still plenty of size for the morning with 6ft+ sets, likely dropping back into the 4-5ft range through the a’noon. 

Easing swells Fri and variable winds as the trough moves offshore and a weak, troughy pattern sits off the coast. We should see mostly 3ft surf with the occ. 4 footer dropping back to inconsistent 2-3ft through the day. 

This weekend (Aug 17-18)

Tricky weekend outlook as a trough looks to reform and deepen in the Tasman Sea, so expect revisions as we move through the week. Reasonable confidence Sat will be small - 2-3ft tops-with a variable offshore flow. 

Similar winds for Sun as a trough deepens in the Tasman and offshore winds strengthen, likely grooming a very tiny nearshore swell regime in the 1ft range. 

Next week (Aug 19 onwards)

Mon looks a different story. With the trough deepening as it tracks towards New Zealand, we should see a S/SE-SE fetch develop through the central/southern Tasman later Sat into Sun (under current modelling). That should produce a fairly steep increase in S/SE-SE swell through Mon, likely pushing up from 2-3ft into the 3-5ft range through the day in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD. We’ll pencil these numbers in and expect revisions through the week. Winds look to clock around from SW to S-S/SE through the day so conditions should be reasonable through the morning then workable at regional points.

Lots of model divergence surrounding the trough of low pressure in the Tasman early next week.

At a minimum, we should see solid S/SE-SE swells for Tues with light SW-SE winds, so pencil that day in.

EC is suggesting an intensification of the fetch out of Cook Strait through Sun/Mon which would generate a nice pulse of SE-E/SE swell  into Wed, if it comes off.

The GFS resolution favours a weaker system, which washes out and rotates out of the swell window quickly, suggesting a fairly rapid drop off in size into Wed.

Longer term both major models suggest a quieter period from mid next week with blocking high pressure in the Tasman and not much action from the south. That will likely see weak NE wind swells come into play. Way too early to have any confidence in that outlook with the Tasman Sea in a troughy mood. 

Check back Wed for the latest update.