South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small peaky E’ly trade swell from Thurs favouring SEQLD
• Small tradeswell and some NE windswell extends into the weekend 
• Strong low forms in Tasman from Sun
• Possible late swell spike Sun a’noon
• Strong S swell Mon with fresh SW winds
• Elevated S-SE swells all week as low occupies Tasman, favouring NENSW for size
• Long range E swell likely to show from later Wed, peaking Thurs/Fri and favouring SEQLD

Recap

Small residual S/SE-SE swells are hanging in there bravely with yesterday in the 2 occ. 3ft range under light winds and today still offering up the odd 2ft set in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD, under a more W-NW flow, expected to tend E/SE-NE in the a’noon. More E/SE-E in SEQLD and E-NE south of the border. Surf has been punching just a smidge above it’s forecast weight and offering up a few fun small waves. 

Still a few small lines in NENSW before the NE wind got up

This week (July 24-26)

Lovely settled conditions at the moment with a broad area of high pressure in the Tasman and a broad but weak tradewind fetch just moving into a better position S and SW of New Caledonia. That will see some small E/NE swell develop through the end of this week into the weekend. Next week now looks much more active! We’ll get to that shortly. We’ll see a N’ly flow develop in advance of a trough through into the weekend bringing a spring-time feel to the surf.  Small trade swell extends into the weekend before a major winter-calibre front and low brings a very sizey S swell event on Mon and bringing elevated wave heights for most of next week. Details below.

Nothing much to see short term. The current S/SE-SE swell will all be gone and we’ll see a freshening NE’ly flow tomorrow which will force surfing to protected backbeaches. Any E/NE trade-swell will be minor but we should see a few small peaks start to show in SEQLD through the day. Nothing exceeding 2ft and much more likely to be in 1-2ft range.

Just a slight bump in size through Fri with a few 2footers on offer and extending down through the rest of the region, at least as far as Yamba. NW winds early, should tend N’ly through the day. A trough exiting the NSW coats may extend a weak S-SE flow up as far as Coffs on Fri a’noon. Best case, it also disrupts the N’ly flow and we see lighter winds on Fri a’noon, allowing a few fun backbeach options.

This weekend (July 27-28)

A game of two halves this weekend. Saturday will see a continuation of small, but rideable E/NE tradeswell, topping out around 2ft on the Sunshine Coast and becoming marginal south of Byron. We should see winds tend more NW on Sat as a major front approaches.

By Sunday a front interacts with a trough of low pressure in the Tasman and explosive development looks likely. Early W’ly winds will freshen and tend strong W/SW-SW in the a’noon especially from Coffs to the Northern Rivers. Depending on the timing of this formation we’re likely to see tiny/flat surf spike rapidly from the S in the a’noon across the MNC, possibly reaching 4ft by close of play. It may just reach the Ballina-Byron coast by nightfall- we’ll update timing on Fri to see if a late window is possible. Otherwise, expect, more small E/NE swell to 2ft in SEQLD, 1-2ft south of Byron-Ballina.

Next week (July 29 onwards)

With good model agreement now there’s high confidence we’ll see a major winter swell event next week as a slow moving low takes up occupancy in the Central Tasman leading to a highly energised stormy sea state over a majority of the Tasman Sea. GFS has a slightly more bullish outlook than EC but either way Mon now looks very big with size building from the S into the 6ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW, (4-5ft at regional Points) and building to 3-4ft across SEQLD S exposed breaks. Fresh to strong SW tending S/SW winds in NENSW will confine surfing to places with S’ly wind protection. SEQLD should see lighter winds from the SW-S with light S-SE winds possible in the a’noon.

What follows will be a working week or so of elevated surf with swell direction clocking more S/SE then SE as the low looks to sit up near the North Island (see below). Under current modelling we’d expect surf in the 4-6 range Tues (smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD), with a just a slow easing through Wed and into Thurs/Fri. Some of that easing will be offset by improving swell direction, especially in SEQLD.

It’s hard to see surf dropping below 3-4ft by Fri. We’re still a few days from this system developing so we’ll see how it looks on Fri but for all Tasman Lows we’ll have too wait for the storm to develop to properly call it.

Winds will be the issue, at least exposed beachbreaks. They’ll remain S’ly biased through the first half of the week, SW in the morning and tending S’ly through the day so you will need to seek some wind protection.

EC suggests a high moving into the Tasman later in the week with winds tending to light land and seabreezes through Thurs into Fri.

GFS persists with the S’ly flow into the end of the working week.

As an add on bonus, the sub-tropical low drifting out from Fiji this week towards Tahiti (and ruining local winds for the Olympics!) will send some small long range E’ly swell our way as it intensifies and becomes slow moving over the weekend. It’s likely to show later Wed and peak Thurs/Fri with inconsistent 3ft sets. Depending on how our dominant Tasman Sea swell looks it may be a barely visible signal or be a very useful component in the mix. SEQLD is likely to have the swell show more strongly during this time frame.

We’ll finesse the wind outlook through Fri but at this stage definitely looks like the step-ups might get a work-out next week.

Check back Fri for the latest.