South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed August 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, minor swells Thurs-Fri with light S-SE winds 
• Increasing SE winds on the weekend with building short range swells 
• Summer style full strength E’ly trade swell next week with winds favouring the Points- although onshore even there
• Winds swing more E-NE from Tues next week
• Possible S’ly change later Wed, or Thurs- check back Fri for latest revisions

Recap

Small fun E’ly swells in the 2-3ft range yesterday slowly ebbed away to 2ft over so during the day. Nice clean conditions for the morning under offshore breezes. This morning is holding small clean surf with the occ. 2ft+ set providing a rideable wave with light offshore breezes, expected to tend to variable breezes during the day.

Still a few small clean peaks at swell magnets

This week (Aug 7-9)

Nice and quiet in the Tasman Sea after last weeks monster low. A trough of low pressure has cleared the coast and a large area of high pressure is drifting over NSW into the Tasman, expected to strengthen and be reinforced by another area of high pressure driftiong over the continent. A low is transiting the lower Tasman, while the remnants of the Tasman are drifting Eastwards in the South Pacific. Over the weekend and next week the large high complex builds a broad E’ly fetch through the South Pacific and into the Coral Sea, generating sizey E swells for the sub-tropics with smaller E/NE swells filtering down to temperate NSW.

In the short run, not much action. Small swells in the 2ft range, remnant E swells and some small SE swells from the current trough should provide enough energy at exposed breaks to ride a shortboard with cleanest conditions early under SW wind which will tend SE’ly at mod paces from mid-late morning. 

Another small blend for Fri. Similar wave heights from local SE swells and small background E swells around 2ft. We may see some small S swell in the mix during the a’noon but with SE winds it’ll be hard to access with S facing beaches blown out. Best early on morning SW breezes.

This weekend (Aug 10-11)

We’ll see reinforcing high pressure move into the Tasman over the weekend and a ridge build up the sub-tropical NSW and QLD coasts. If this unfolds as expected we’ll see increasing S/SE-SE winds developing.

These should be lighter on Sat with a morning SW breeze likely before winds tend S/SE-SE. Not much swell on offer but we should see a rideable wave in the 2ft range as local short range SE swells get boosted by some small S swell. Again S facing beaches will see biggest surf but are likely to be blown out early. 

An increase in size from the SE-E/SE is likely for Sun as winds potentially feed into a trough off the North Coast or SEQLD. Still a bit of uncertainty over this scenario but winds from the S/SE-SE should freshen and we should see short period swells build to 3ft, suggesting a few small peelers on the Points. 

Next week (Aug 12 onwards)

No change to the broad pattern expected next week which is strong high pressure in the Tasman and and deep E’ly fetch developing. There is some uncertainty about the potential trough off the North Coast or SEQLD. That does affect Mondays outlook in a minor fashion. We may possibly see an earlier increase in size Mon, up into the 4ft range if something does deepen in the Northern Tasman Sun or Mon.

If not, we’ll see smaller surf Mon in the 3ft range.

By Tues we see late summer style sizey E’ly swells from a fully developed sea state across the Coral Sea. Typically size from these events runs to 5-6ft across outer Points, grading smaller into more protected Points which should all be breaking well due to the swell direction. Winds tend E’ly quickly on Tues, even E/NE south of the border so it’s going to be a messy afair even at sheltered Points.

Similar size or even up a notch Wed. We’ll probably be tweaking local winds as a trough moves up the coast- so expect NE’lies and a S’ly change at some point. This may occur later in the day or even Thurs so tune in Fri for an update.

Slowly easing swell from this source for the rest of the week. The broad E’ly fetch washes out and an E/NE infeed into a local trough is currently modelled as being fairly weak. 

It should hold surf from the E/NE in the 3-5ft range Thurs, easing further, into Fri.

Of course, if any of those troughy short range features develop further we could be in for an upgrade.

A deep polar low later next week looks better aimed at Pacific targets and a large complex low under the continent will be focussed on southern states. We’ll keep tabs on those and report back on Fri to check on their surf potential for the east coast.

Seeya then.