South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 31st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Oversized S/SE groundswell peaking Thu AM, easing slowly into the PM, more noticeably into Fri
• Strong S/SW winds, tending SW for a period in selected spots each morning this week
• Easing mid-period S/SE-SE swell Sat, with a moderate + sized E/SE-SE swell for Sat/Sun
• Easing but still mod S/SW tending S/SE winds Sat (W-SW selected spots early)
• W/SW tending SE winds Sun
• Slowly easing E swell next week with light winds
• A few small days from mid week
• May see some small, workable E/NE trade swell through next weekend

Recap

Large to XL swells from the S yesterday in the 8-10ft range in NENSW, building to 3-5ft in SEQLD, with early W/SW winds tending fresh SW-S during the day. Bigger today in SEQLD,  as a new pulse fills in with stronger swell periods and better swell direction. Sets are in excess of 8-10ft in NENSW, with 4-5ft surf across the Gold Coast, 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast. Early winds are offshore but swells are still raw from the local sea state so it’s another day of large surf suitable for only the most experienced at locations with some wind protection in NENSW and more user friendly swells in SEQLD.

You know it's big when this much S swell gets into Coolangatta Bay

This week (Jul 31 - Aug 2)

No change to the outlook as a massive, slow moving low pressure system in the Tasman and strong high over Tasmania combine to fill the Tasman Sea with gales to strong gales, generating large swells. We are starting to see that system slowly move north and the more southwards fetch start to ease in strength through today and into tomorrow. That will be offset by a developing fetch of gales off the North Island, which will supply reinforcing energy from the SE-E/SE Fri a’noon over the weekend. Local winds will slowly ease over the weekend.

In the short run, still L to XL surf peaks tomorrow with sets to 8-10ft across a wide range of exposed locations in NENSW, smaller 4-6ft at S exposed breaks in SEQLD. We should see similar morning winds as today- SW with a more W/SW or even W’ly flow before winds swing SW-S at mod/fresh paces. Expect a slow easing off the top end of size in the a’noon with 6-8ft sets still on the table in NENSW.

Friday should see a slight improvement in winds as pressure gradients start to slowly ease on our side of the Tasman. Dominant S/SE swell to 6-8ft in NENSEW, 3-5ft in SEQLD will slowly ease through the day. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes showing the fetch already building off the North Island suggest we’ll see a pulse of SE-E/SE swell to 3-5ft fill in during the a’noon, with the main pulse from that direction showing on Sat. Winds still look to reach mod/fresh paces from the S during the day but we should see a morning W-SW flow linger for longer.

This weekend (Aug 3-4)

Improving wind outlook continues into the weekend but we’ll still see mod (at least) S’ly flow through Sat. Morning winds should be lighter W-SW before clocking around to the S at mod paces.  A mix of leftover S/SE to 4-5ft and building E/SE to 4-6ft is expected. Models suggest the biggest pulse in the a’noon but as mentioned ASCAT passes would indicate a possible earlier arrival time. 

Sunday should see similar winds again with a  a light W tending SW flow slowly clocking around to the S-S/SE  during the day .  We’ll take a last look at winds on Fri. A really fun blend of SE-E/SE swells should hold 4-5ft sets , biggest in NENSW, with surf closer to 4ft in SEQLD, with a slow and steady easing trend becoming apparent by close of play.

Next week (Aug 5 onwards)

No major swell sources on the radar for next week at this stage so we’ll see easing swells from the current Tasman low. 

High  pressure moves into the Tasman and we should see some glorious days with light winds Mon to Wed. Light offshores should tend to light/variable seabreezes in the a’noon at least for Mon and Tues.

We’ll just see a slow, steady roll-off in size with Mon still seeing a few 3-4ft sets, smaller 3ft on Tues. Wave models are still suggesting a minor blip in size Tues but current modelling doesn’t support that. We’ll update Fri but confidence is high the general trend will be down. 

By Wed surf will be around the 2ft range.

Current modelling suggests a few days then into the end of next week of similar sized or smaller surf. 

Trade-wind flows do develop in the Coral Sea later next week, focussing on the area SW of New Caledonia. If this scenario holds we should start to see some small, peaky E/NE trade swell through next weekend. Nothing major but supplying a few workable beaches in the 2 occ. 3ft range.

We may see a small trough develop off the NSW Coast late next week which may supply some modest short range SE swell for the MNC but confidence is low this far out and there doesn’t look to be much in it at this stage.

Check back Fri and we’ll have a fresh look at it.

Seeya then