Another extended S-SE swell event next week favouring south of the border for size
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 26th)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small tradeswell and some NE windswell extends into the weekend with a rideable wave in SEQLD, marginal in NENSW
- NW winds Sat, tending W then SW on Sun
- Strong low forms in Tasman from Sun
- Small late swell spike Sun a’noon on the MNC
- Strong S swell building Mon with fresh SW winds
- Elevated S-SE swells all week as low occupies Tasman, favouring NENSW for size
- Biggest pulse later Wed, easing through Thurs
- Small, long range E swell likely to show from later Wed, peaking Thurs/Fri and favouring SEQLD
Recap
Weak and small surf since yesterday with a few small leftover S/SE sets to 1-2ft in NENSW, similar size E’ly swell in SEQLD. Clean conditions early before NE winds got up. Today is seeing N-NE winds and small, weak surf. Around 2ft in SEQLD and smaller 1-2ft in NENSW.
Funky tradeswell of no great quality on the Sunshine Coast beachies
This weekend (July 27-28)
No great change to the weekend outlook. Not much action Sat, just a small weak trade-swell signal to 1-2ft in SEQLD ( a notch bigger on the Sunshine Coast) with early NW winds freshening as a trough/front approaches.
By Sunday the trough and an approaching cold front will interact and form a surface low which is expected to deepen rapidly with strong high pressure support to the west.
The morning and right through to lunch at least should remain tiny/flat as NW then W’lies start to freshen. Through the a’noon we’ll see strong W/SW-SW winds develop as the low winds up. A late kick in size now looks to be muted and confined to the Mid North Coast as most of the winds are pushing away from the coast and the swell generating component builds later in the day. Nonetheless , we should still see a kick in size from flat to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks across the MNC, with a very small chance of something showing right on dark up to Ballina.
Next week (July 29 onwards)
Gales to strong gales develop later Sun and o/night into Mon as a complex low forms in the Tasman. Multiple swell generating fetches are expected to form and sling shot around this huge, slow moving low gyre. Thus we can expect an extended period of large surf next week with embedded pulses from the S through S/SE-SE as the week goes on.
For Mon we’ll see an initial building trend in large, local S swell with a raw edge to it. Expect size to build in NENSW from 4-5ft up in the 6-8ft range, bigger 10ft at exposed river bars. SEQLD will see surf build from 2ft to 3-5ft at S facing beaches, with small peelers on the Points. Lots of wind to go with it in NENSW, much lighter in SEQLD. Mod W-SW winds early, clocking around SW through S/SW during the day.
Still very solid Tues, just down a notch from Mon’s peak but with initial S swell augmented by new S/SE swell as a fetch develops on the more eastern side of the Tasman. Similar winds, possibly just a notch lighter but confining clean conditions to more sheltered spots.
By Wed, the fetch that developed towards the South Island Mon into Tues and retrogrades in a similar manner to June’s solstice swell, will see a strong new rebuild in S/SE swell later in the day. Likely building back into the 6-8ft range in NENSW with bigger sets possible if current modelling plays out.SEQLD should see surf build from 3-4ft to 4-5ft at S exposed breaks.
We should see local winds relax a notch and tend more W-W/SW through the morning before clocking back around SW. That opens up more big wave potential for exposed breaks in NENSW. Keep Wednesday clear if you have big boards and skills for big waves. SEQLD will remain in the playful range apart from a few exposed beachies which will be thumping.
Expect a light NE seabreeze in SEQLD next week.
Only a very slow easing expected for the second half of next week as the low slowly dissipates.
Expect solid surf Thurs in the 6 occ. 8ft range with lighter offshore winds.
Slowly dropping through Fri and even remaining solid 4-5ft on Sat.
Swell from the sub-tropical low in the South Pacific now looks to come in on the lighter side with only the very occ. 2-3ft set showing later Wed and likely peaking Thurs and easing Fri. It's unlikely to be felt much in NENSW considering the dominant S/SE swell in the water.
If the first half of the week was too big or raggedy for your skills/experience or surf spots we should see a wider range of surf spots lighting up into the second half of the week, suiting a wider range of skill sets.
In short, another extended event of pumping surf, although windy for the first half of it.
High pressure looks to move into the Tasman next weekend, suggesting a much quieter week beginning 5/8.
Get the step-ups prepped (if in NSW) and seeya Mon.
Until then, have a great weekend!
Comments
somewhere in nth NSW will be pumping. Wonder what the crowd will be like after the last swell!
yeh i wont even bother there, crowd will be feral. After the swell peaks we should get other options open up though.
Always been a legendary place/ on people's radar but the recent exposure has been mental. Wonder if it'll recover to feeling like a mellow spot for moderate winter swells.
I’m sure that last swell had more east in it than was forecasted so probably won’t be the same quality, but just as crowded..
I’m really hoping we’re all alluding to a different spot here.
And not looking for verification either. Haha
Shithouse for the GC again
I know its south swell but its big enough that it should get into the beachies and exposed points to a good size. Will be better than NNSW most likely (which will prob have 2 options)
Here we go again.
A chance to cycle through the quiver.
I know one spot around here that will be handling it fine, if you can get out to it.
probably no one out.
How good is cycling though the quiver!
Don't even have to dust off the bigger boards after the last run
Time for the Owl/Brewer?
Could be.
My mate is out in the mines and his 8'5" Brewer is sitting there, unattended.
Inspection coming up before we leave
Good time to misplace your passport ain’t it?
After talking to people this past week, I have a few spots I’d have loved to scope.
Looking forward to reports and a few photos.
I was waiting for the next gyre .
Damn, here we go again! I'm fucking crook as this morning as well, shit house timing.
From the comments it seems the qlddddeeers have learnt that the swells are heaps bigger south of Byron. Who would've thought?
The Hwy goes in both directions champ. Come cyclone season ya’ll be running north
https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/20-best-excuses-used-get-surfing-big-...
I think they had that worked out in the 60s
Easy on our QLD brothers and sisters.
They suffer much in winter.
"10ft at exposed river bars" - Paging Josh Bystrom.
https://www.nsw.gov.au/driving-boating-and-transport/using-waterways-boa...
May need to head a little further south for the 10fters sprout
I don't think so, gonna be a crazy event.
looks like its getting bigger than earlier forecasts.
Yeh that sucks, gonna be too big and straight everywhere. Oh well back end of the swell looking nice if there's still any sand left
Low position in the Tasman has shifted around on each model run. Looked higher up in Tasman at first (good), then lower in Tasman and closer to coast(bad). Now looks to set up higher in the Tasman, and for longer duration (very good).
Once again, best of luck with this coming week. Surely there'll be scoring and goodies.
And thank you for another wonderful 10 days, with superb weather, great food, crystal clear water, ok to really good waves - and just plain good times. You have it very good over here.
4 beachies surfed, and 3 right points. Bonus today was solo point waves while the beaches were well subscribed. My cup runneth over, and Ms IB's too.