South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small tradeswell and some NE windswell extends into the weekend with a rideable wave in SEQLD, marginal in NENSW
• NW winds Sat, tending W then SW on Sun
• Strong low forms in Tasman from Sun
• Small late swell spike Sun a’noon on the MNC
• Strong S swell building Mon with fresh SW winds
• Elevated S-SE swells all week as low occupies Tasman, favouring NENSW for size
• Biggest pulse later Wed, easing through Thurs
• Small, long range E swell likely to show from later Wed, peaking Thurs/Fri and favouring SEQLD

Recap

Weak and small surf since yesterday with a few small leftover S/SE sets to 1-2ft in NENSW, similar size E’ly swell in SEQLD. Clean conditions early before NE winds got up. Today is seeing N-NE winds and small, weak surf. Around 2ft in SEQLD and smaller 1-2ft in NENSW.

Funky tradeswell of no great quality on the Sunshine Coast beachies

This weekend (July 27-28)

No great change to the weekend outlook. Not much action Sat, just a small weak trade-swell signal to 1-2ft in SEQLD ( a notch bigger on the Sunshine Coast) with early NW winds freshening as a trough/front approaches. 

By Sunday the trough and an approaching cold front will interact and form a surface low which is expected to deepen rapidly with strong high pressure support to the west. 

The morning and right through to lunch at least should remain tiny/flat as NW then W’lies start to freshen. Through the a’noon we’ll see strong  W/SW-SW winds develop as the low winds up. A late kick in size now looks to be muted and confined to the Mid North Coast as most of the winds are pushing away from the coast and the swell generating component builds later in the day. Nonetheless , we should still see a kick in size from flat to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks across the MNC, with a very small chance of something showing right on dark up to Ballina.

Next week (July 29 onwards)

Gales to strong gales develop later Sun and o/night into Mon as a complex low forms  in the Tasman. Multiple swell generating fetches are expected to form and sling shot around this huge, slow moving low gyre. Thus we can expect an extended period of large surf next week with embedded pulses from the S through S/SE-SE as the week goes on.

For Mon we’ll see an initial building trend in large, local S swell with a raw edge to it. Expect size to build in NENSW from 4-5ft up in the 6-8ft range, bigger 10ft at exposed river bars. SEQLD will see surf build from 2ft to 3-5ft at S facing beaches, with small peelers on the Points. Lots of wind to go with it in NENSW, much lighter in SEQLD. Mod W-SW winds early, clocking around SW through S/SW during the day.

Still very solid Tues, just down a notch from Mon’s peak but with initial S swell augmented by new S/SE swell as a fetch develops on the more eastern side of the Tasman. Similar winds, possibly just a notch lighter but confining clean conditions to more sheltered spots.

By Wed, the fetch that developed towards the South Island Mon into Tues and retrogrades in a similar manner to June’s solstice swell, will see a strong new rebuild in S/SE swell later in the day. Likely building back into the 6-8ft range in NENSW with bigger sets possible if current modelling plays out.SEQLD should see surf build from 3-4ft to 4-5ft at S exposed breaks.

We should see local winds relax a notch and tend more W-W/SW through the morning before clocking back around SW. That opens up more big wave potential for exposed breaks in NENSW. Keep Wednesday clear if you have big boards and skills for big waves. SEQLD will remain in the playful range apart from a few exposed beachies which will be thumping.

Expect a light NE seabreeze in SEQLD next week.

Only a very slow easing expected for the second half of next week as the low slowly dissipates. 

Expect solid surf Thurs in the 6 occ. 8ft range with lighter offshore winds.

Slowly dropping through Fri and even remaining solid 4-5ft on Sat. 

Swell from the sub-tropical low in the South Pacific now looks to come in on the lighter side with only the very occ. 2-3ft set showing later Wed and likely peaking Thurs and easing Fri. It's unlikely to be felt much in NENSW considering the dominant S/SE swell in the water.

If the first half of the week was too big or raggedy for your skills/experience or surf spots we should see a wider range of surf spots lighting up into the second half of the week, suiting a wider range of skill sets.

In short, another extended event of pumping surf, although windy for the first half of it.

High pressure looks to move into the Tasman next weekend, suggesting a much quieter week beginning 5/8.

Get the step-ups prepped (if in NSW) and seeya Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!