A deep low is moving slowly towards New Zealand but the main bulk of the fetch has already rotated away from the East Coast with an off axis fetch aimed at South Pacific Islands. Elongated high pressure is moving into the Tasman with an approaching trough, front and cut-off low expected to tighten the pressure gradient leading to freshening N’lies from Boxing Day.

Still looking good for Sat. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) pass shows a Tasman low with a long fetch of strong S-S/SE winds well positioned in the swell window.

We’ll see some swell from this pattern, first from the initial short range S swell and then some better quality S/SE swell as the surface low retrogrades from near the South Island back into the Tasman. Read on for details and a sketch of the Xmas week.

On the back of a monsoonal surge models are starting to look interested in low pressure development between PNG, the Solomons and Vanuatu which may indicate the first real tropical developments of the season. Still too early to have any expectations on surf potential from this area but we will keep our eyes on it.