The tropics is in an active state with multiple low centres expected along the monsoon trough as it responds to a phase of the MJO passing into Australian longitudes. Still plenty of uncertainty there, with any meaningful swell subject to extremely low confidence in specifics.
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Multiple low pressure systems are suggested on long range model guidance, potentially tropical cyclones which could deliver large E’ly swells.
Either way, it’s looking like our eastern swell window is about to get into the swing of things and finally resume its regular summer programming.
The approaching southerly change should be getting close to the Qld border around dawn..
We’ve got plenty more swell on the way, and much better winds on Tuesday as the synoptic pattern relaxes, allowing a light variable airstream to envelop the coast.
The best low for Northern NSW/SE Qld surfers is already sitting just north of New Zealand, and is generating E’ly swells that will feed into Sunday’s mix and provide solid 4ft waves across most exposed coasts, holding into Monday.
The models have moved around quite a bit for the short term. But there are positives to glean.
We've got a large, windy outlook from Friday through the weekend.
During this time, models are suggesting a small trough of low pressure will bud off the inland low and drift into the Coral Sea off the SEQLD Coast, which enhances the SE flow through SEQLD, extending down into NENSW by Tues, although winds will remain E/NE-NE south of Coffs.
A small trough of low pressure has stalled off Seal Rocks with a SE infeed south of the trough expected to ease over the next 24 hrs and a light/variable flow north of the trough. Apart from this short-range feature, which is whipping up some local, short range swell for Central/Southern NSW extending up to the MNC, pressure gradients in the Tasman and Coral Seas remain very weak.