A secondary front trading behind this low looks a little better positioned with strong SW winds expected to nose into the lower Tasman Sea on Thursday. This should generate a slightly bigger south swell for Friday.
Primary tabs
Saturday will see a combination of swells: initially a continuation of the slow peaky E/NE energy showing today, plus a small long period S’ly swell generated by a vigorous mid-week Southern Ocean low passing well south of the continent.
Our SE swell from today will ease into Thursday but we’ll see a continuation of peaky E’ly swell from a modest ridge through the central/Northern Tasman Sea.
Also arriving across the South Coast on Tuesday afternoon will be an unusual SE swell generated by a slow moving trough south of New Zealand over the weekend.
There’s not a lot of surf happening this weekend, but you will get wet if you’re keen.
The strongest phase of this setup will occur overnight tonight so Thursday morning will consequently see the largest surf.
A stationary blocking high in the Tasman Sea will direct N/NE winds across Southern NSW right through this week and into the weekend
In Wednesday’s notes I mentioned a possible tropical depression near New Caledonia early next week that had the potential to generate a stronger E/NE groundswell for the second half of next week. Fortunately, the models have come inline with this thinking and they’re expecting a substantial easterly dip to form between SE Qld and New Caledonia around Tuesday.
We’ve got a couple of swells due on Thursday.
This swell is expected to reach maturity around Wednesday or Thursday, which means we’ll probably see a peak in size around Saturday or Sunday.