Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 2nd June)

Best Days: Saturday for the most size, but winds may spoil conditions at some locations (mainly in the Hunter). Otherwise Sunday should see smaller clean waves with light winds. 

Recap: There has been plenty of south swell this week but it’s been of average quality. Winds held out offshore both mornings across a wider cross section of the coast than anticipated, but in general it’s been a bit ordinary all round. South facing beaches have seen 4-6ft surf, with much smaller waves elsewhere due to the southerly direction and generally low period.

This weekend (Sat 3rd - Sun 4th)

As of this morning, the Tasman fetch was still quite active just to our southeast, though it’s now tracking north and pushing out of our swell window - and will quickly cease swell production for our region. This means we can expect a steady easing trend from Saturday morning onwards. 

Saturday will therefore have the most size, still up to 4-6ft at south facing beaches early in the day, though generally confined to the Hunter coasts. Expect smaller surf elsewhere, especially at beaches with less southerly exposure. By the afternoon we’re likely to have lost a foot to two, and into Sunday we’ll be down another rung on the ladder - perhaps 2-3ft+ at south facing beaches (again, upper end of this size range in the Hunter) and smaller surf elsewhere, easing slowly during the day. 

Easing S/SW winds are expected on Saturday, which should become light W/SW across most coasts south of the Hunter during the morning (there’s a reasonable chance for a lingering southerly north of Sydney early Saturday).  

A weak shallow front pushing through the central/western Tasman later Saturday may renew a mild southerly flow into Sunday morning, but for the most part conditions should be pretty good on Sunday, especially south of Sydney where the pressure gradient will be weak.

Next week (Mon 5th onwards)

Next week's forecast has thrown a range of curveballs over the last few days. 

Wednesday’s model runs had nothing of interest at all, Thursday’s model runs suddenly spawned a deep Tasman Low, and now the latest model runs have this system showing as a moderate southerly change around Tuesday, with very little swell generating activity on the Tasman.

We’ve literally gone from two feet to eight feet and back to two feet as the models shunted a cold outbreak further east each time, successively weakening it.

To begin with, early next week will see small residual swells from the south and east; the latter resulting from a small fetch developing on the backside of the current advancing Tasman Low off New Zealand’s West Coast. 

Now, the outlook for the middle of the week is based on the current model runs that have weakened the Tasman Low that appeared yesterday. If there are changes in the synoptic charts over the weekend, I’ll comment below - but for now it looks like a relatively benign setup. 

Tuesday’s southerly change will generate a low quality south swell for the afternoon that will ease through into Wednesday. The front will be associated with a deep low passing south of Tasmania on Monday but it’s expected to be poorly aligned within our south swell window, so we’re looking at only a small increase in southerly groundswell on Wednesday and maybe early Thursday, perhaps 2-3ft sets at a handful of south swell magnets and not much elsewhere.

Beyond this the model guidance is suggesting the long wave trough will amplify over the eastern part of New Zealand (Wednesday onwards), focusing very strong frontal succession just outside out swell window. We’ll probably see some small, unusual SE swell spread back into the Tasman Sea and therefore NSW coast - but probably not until next weekend and early in the following week.

Anyway, with the models all over the shop in recent days it’s really going to require close scrutiny with each and every update. So, check in over the weekend to see if the particulars have changed - otherwise if current progs hold steady we’re looking at small surf for much of next week.

Have a great weekend!