A broad inland trough across the eastern states is slowly shifting eastwards. It’s freshening NE winds about the Southern NSW coast but ultimately won’t generate much quality surf over the next few days, owing to a lack of strength in the surface wind field.
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We’ve got a wild weekend of wind, rain and large surf ahead.
There’s no real change to the forecast for the rest of the week, however Friday’s looking pretty complex locally as a low develops off the coast.
There’s nothing I love more than a relatively stationary synoptic pattern. Slow moving weather systems - even small, weaker patterns - always have their swell potential amplified and often result in a much more drawn out event, which increases the chances of finding favourable windows of opportunity. And that’s what we’re looking at this week.
As such we’re looking at plenty of strong swell to kick start the weekend, and the swell direction will probably shift back to the SE under the influence of this secondary pulse.
So, we've got continuing large easterly swells and light offshore winds for the next few days.
Over the weekend, the trend reversed - and now we're looking down the barrel at the biggest and best Tasman groundswells since last June’s Black Nor’easter.
The low forming north of Sydney right now is expected to slide S/SE during Saturday, and in doing so will swing an initial E’ly fetch around to the SE and then the South.
The best part of the current synoptic setup is that it’s associated with a blocking pattern, which means very little west-east movement in the broadscale systems. And this is a good thing, as it’s going to allow the weekend's Tasman Low to meander through our swell window for quite some time.
A high pressure system across the south-eastern Tasman Sea and a broad area of low pressure across the tropical waters north of New Caledonia are creating an easterly squeeze between the two.