To the south, a severe gale to storm force fetch off the ice shelf from a retrograding low under the South Island sends a rare S/SE groundswell up the Pipe, with another strong front/low late this week into the weekend expected to generate another pulse of S’ly groundswell over the weekend.

The high pressure belt is weak and moving at a more N’ly latitude than we’ve seen this summer, with a troughy pattern in the Tasman and some frontal activity under the SE of the continent continuing. A much stronger front and parent low tracks NE into the lower Tasman late this week with a broad band of gales to strong gales expected to generate some strong S swell over the weekend.

A weaker front Wed may bring some small S swell later Thurs into Fri but a much stronger system tracks NE into the Tasman Thurs/Fri with a wide band of gales suggesting a more substantial S swell event sometimes next weekend.

Looking south to more local sources then we have a relatively weak high (1022 hPa) moving under Tasmania with a long trough and front in the Tasman directing a S’ly fetch through the Central-Southern Tasman. Once that swell source fades we’re back to typical summer sources with a NE windswell expected late this week and a minor S swell event into the weekend.