Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small mixed bag Tues-Wed with NE winds- typical  summer grovel surf
• S’ly change Wed a’noon
• Small mixed bag Thurs AM with some traces of long period S swell, best winds early
• Early offshores Fri with small S swells
• Strong S swell filling in Sat with SE winds tending E in the a’noon
• Strong S swell Sun with freshening NE winds - lighter NW inshore early
• Small NE swells Mon next week, tending to small E/NE swells
• Tropics remains active but nothing concrete on the radar for temperate NSW- keep checking for latest updates

Recap

A fair bit of S quadrant swell over the weekend with Sat seeing 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches with reasonable morning conditions under light onshore winds. Sunday started smaller with 2 (occ. 3ft sets) and morning land breezes before winds kicked up from the SE-E/SE. Still some moderate S swells in the water this morning with 3ft surf at S facing beaches , bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter and a few other swell magnets. Conditions are glassy/lumpy to start the new week with light/variable winds expected to tend E then NE in the a’noon. 

A fair amount of S energy on Sat under gloomy skies

This week (Jan 29-Feb 2)

Weak high pressure in the Tasman (1015hPa) is directing a shallow onshore flow across the Eastern Seaboard with troughs associated with the summer monsoon across the north of the country and into the Coral Sea and some frontal activity continuing to sweep below the continent into the lower Tasman Sea. We’ll see developments from both of those areas later in the week and into the weekend- with S swells favouring  temperate NSW and developing E swells favouring sub-tropical areas.A few small, weak days to get though first.  Read on for details. 

In the short run and a trough line looks to just tickle the Illawarra tomorrow with S-SE winds possibly just reaching Cronulla while north of the Harbour sees a NE flow. Not much surf expected with todays S swell dribbling away and minor NE-E/NE swells in the 1-2ft range expected.

Similar sized surf expected for Wed. Just a grovel with weak swells from the NE-E/NE less than 2ft. We may see some traces of longer period S swell with slow 2ft sets but Thurs looks a better bet. Early N’ly winds (NW-N/NW for the dawny) with a stiff S’ly change arriving in Sydney around lunch-time and tending S/SE by close of play. 

Winds should ease quickly overnight into Thurs with a light offshore W/SW-SW flow early tending to light S’lies before washing out to light E’ly seabreezes in the a’noon. We should see a small blend of local S swell and some long period traces to 2ft (2-3ft at better magnets) but you’ll need to work around local winds.

Another wind change Fri with early pre-frontal NW ’lies before a S-SE change as a trough moves up the coast in advance of a much stronger front. We may see some new S swell late in the day from strong winds out of Bass Strait but local winds will likely spoil the party at S facing beaches.

This weekend (Feb 3-4)

Strong S swell expected this weekend as a front with gales to strong gales tied to a complex parent low drifts slowly through the far Southern Tasman. That swell should be in the water Sat morning in a building phase with early sets to 3-4ft building to 4-5ft during the day (bigger sets at S magnets and the Hunter). Local winds will be tricky with mod S-SE winds early tending to light E/SE-E’ly breezes- youhmight have to put up with some lump and bump to utilise the S swell. A late kick to the NE is more likely south of Sydney.

Sun looks a better bet for S facing beaches with plenty of strong S swell to 4-6ft at S facing beaches (easing during the a’noon). Early light NW winds will tend N then NE and freshen during the a’noon- possoibly whipping up some local NE windswell. There should be some real quality around Sun at those S facing spots that can handle a muscular S groundswell.

Next week (Feb5 onwards)

Typical summer pattern to start next week with a high in the Tasman directing a NE flow across temperate NSW, more SE-E in the sub-tropics. A S’ly change does look to approach from a trough but we’ll finesse the timing of that during the week. We should see some workable NE windswell into Mon- provisionally in the 3ft range before the S’ly hits.

E’ly winds off the top of the high will generate workable trade swells for the sub-tropics with some small E/NE swell filtering down from the Northern Tasman during the first half of next week, no real size to it but it should offer up a grovel under SE winds.

Models are still interested in low pressure development in the tropics with the area between the Solomons and Vanuatu of particular interest. Nothing concrete at this stage as far as surf potential goes but we’ll keep tabs on this area through the week and report back Wed and Fri. Some frontal activity in the lower Tasman looks to supply some small S swell pulses into the medium term, as well.

Check back Wed for the latest.