Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun S swell and E/NE swell combo this weekend with light winds tending NE in the a’noon
• Increase in E/NE swell later Sun, extending into Mon
• S swell spike Mon, holding into Tues morning before easing
• Still tracking potential  tropical cyclone in Coral Sea next week, limited surf potential at this stage for temperate NSW but stay tuned for updates

Recap

Small but fun swells from the Eastern quadrant chugged away yesterday in the 2-3ft range with morning offshores providing very nice surface conditions until winds swung S through SE after lunch. Super clean again this morning under a synoptic W’ly flow with size down a notch but still offering up mostly 2ft surf with the occ. bigger 3ft set. Winds are set to swing SE again through the day. A small kick in S swell is expected in the a’noon with quality degraded by SE winds.

Bit of a wait for the sets but nice and crispy under offshore winds

This weekend (Jan 20-21)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. A compact low is tracking SE away from Tasmania with a nice slingshot fetch in the process of entering the Tasman adjacent to the Apple Isle. A retrograding fetch in the South Pacific is currently active and expected to send some fun surf out way over the weekend.

Small mixed bag for Sat, with S swell slightly dominant to 2-3ft (bigger by a notch on the Hunter and other reliable S swell magnets) mixed with E-E/NE swell to 2ft. Light morning winds should offer clean conditions before NE seabreezes kick up in the a’noon. 

A weak trough across the region Sun should see a more variable flow - likely W-NW through the morning before tending E/NE-NE in the a’noon. Morning clean conditions with a similar mixed bag of fading S swell and a slowly building E/NE swell to 3ft+ through the a'noon. A late S’ly change should reach Jervis Bay by close of play, Sydney after dark. 

Nothing too incredible but there should be plenty of fun options across beachies and reefs this weekend.

Next week (Jan 22 onwards)

The new high moving in from below the Island continent and an angled trough now looks like providing a much stronger S’ly flow into Mon, with the fetch extending along the South Coast into the lower Tasman (see below). As modelled we’re on track for a fast rising spike in S swell through Mon- likely into the 5-6ft range- under fresh S’ly winds. That will combine with swell from the E/NE, expected to bump up a half  notch to 3 occ. 4ft on the sets. 

Plenty of size from the S into Tues morning , in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches, with E/NE-E swell to 3ft+, slowly easing. The firm high pressure ridge will hold S-S/SE tending SE winds at moderate strength so you’ll need to seek shelter.

Looking into mid week and all eyes on the Coral Sea where a tropical cyclone is expected to be resident. Uncertainty over track remains high with GFS favouring a slide down the sub-tropical ridge to the SE while EC is favouring a coastal crossing on the NQLD coast. Neither of those outcomes are favourable for swell production for temperate NSW so only small amounts of E/NE swell are likely (if anything into next weekend).

More likely is a swell from the Southern quadrant as a front pushes under Tasmania later next week. 

Under current modelling that looks to supply some small S swell pulses Fri into next weekend. 

Low confidence of course due to the cyclone so expect revisions on Mon- hopefully upwards.

Until then, have a great weekend!