This low intensifies as it tracks slowly through the South Pacific slot between New Caledonia and the North Island, spraying the East coast with quality E swell.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/10/tricky-short-term-outlook-increasing-e
freeride76
Monday, 10 February 2025
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/07/improved-outlook-next-week-swells
freeride76
Friday, 7 February 2025
New high pressure moves SE of Tasmania to start next week and compared to Wed’s notes it’s looking stronger and slower moving, which is good news for surf potential, especially medium term as it anchors low pressure drifting down from the tropics into the wide open South Pacific slot.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/05/fun-waves-the-tropics-continue-easing
freeride76
Wednesday, 5 February 2025
No great change to the outlook as a tradewind fetch anchored by tropical low pressure near New Caledonia remains active before the low slides off to the SE later tomorrow and into Fri. We’ll see continuing tradeswells from this source.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/02/nothing-major-the-tropics-small-blends
freeride76
Monday, 3 February 2025
High pressure support for the tropical systems which is currently anchoring a tradewind fetch in the Coral Sea weakens substantially over the short term, with E swell potential thus weakening. We’ll still see some fun E’ly trade swell in the sub-tropics, trickling down into temperate regions.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/31/minor-mixed-bag-the-weekend-the-tropics
freeride76
Friday, 31 January 2025
Weak high pressure moves into the Tasman with the remnants of a trough holding a modest fetch of SE breezes in the central Tasman.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/29/small-offerings-the-short-term-radar-the
freeride76
Wednesday, 29 January 2025
The tropics is in an active state with multiple low centres expected along the monsoon trough as it responds to a phase of the MJO passing into Australian longitudes. Still plenty of uncertainty there, with any meaningful swell a while away.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/26/small-mixed-bag-swells-week-and-next
freeride76
Monday, 27 January 2025
Longer term is starting to look more dynamic as the tropics finally starts to fire up. Multiple low pressure systems are suggested on long range model guidance, potentially tropical cyclones.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/24/patchy-surf-the-foreseeable-future
thermalben
Friday, 24 January 2025
Today’s strengthening southerly winds are related to a developing Tasman Low that is poorly aligned within our swell window, and tracking unfavourably to the east.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/22/mix-swell-sources-flukey-winds-top
thermalben
Wednesday, 22 January 2025
As suggested in Wednesday’s notes, I’m not keen on the alignment of this Tasman Low.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/20/punchy-east-swell-the-next-few-days-then
thermalben
Monday, 20 January 2025
A final low pressure system associated with our recent complex synoptic pattern moved from a position north of New Zealand last week, into the Tasman Sea over the weekend.
