There’s currently a robust Tasman low, still intensifying, moving slowly SE off the Central NSW coast down into the Tasman Sea towards New Zealand. Gales to severe gales wrapping the SW flank of the low will supply plenty of strong S’ly swell through the rest of the week.
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That’s allowing plenty of space for low pressure development in the Tasman and as a front pushes through and combines with the remnants of a trough we’ll see a robust low develop through tomorrow, with gales expected close to the coast.
The moist onshore flow from this set-up is flowing into a coastal trough and interior low bringing onshore winds and rain as well as developing E swell. We’ll eventually see the low and trough clear the coast bringing better winds Sun/Mon with some strong S swell on the menu for next week from Tasman Sea and deeper sources.
The Mid North Coast will see stormy, poor surf developing later week and into the weekend, improving slowly from Sunday.
A complex inland trough low tied to tropical sources exits the coast as a strong high moves into the Bight. Following that a coastal trough in the Northern Tasman then deepens, likely into a surface low which may drift southwards bringing E swells to the entire region, possibly followed by a return S swell as the low gets captured by an approaching front.
Only minor action from the E is expected from a northwards positioned SE flow in the Coral Sea. Adding to that source south of the border we’ll see some small S’ly pulses over the Easter long weekend.
The swell regime for the next few days throughout SE Qld will remain small out of the east with just enough size for small runners on the semi-exposed points.
We’ve got an extensive high pressure belt with weak cells in the Tasman and near Indian Ocean and a stronger cell in the Bight. Compared to summer high pressure we’re seeing a slight seasonal shift northwards in the belt although later in the week the strong high in the Bight does move towards Tasmania at a more typical summer latitude.
Light winds continue into Mon and likely until Wed as the as the W-E progression of the next high cell (and subsequently fronts) slows and allows more intrusion of the S’ly fronts into the lower Tasman. S swells from frontal activity now look a notch more active next week, especially at S facing beaches in NENSW.
The NZ high and a long monsoon trough has generated a useful fetch of tradewinds in the eastern swell window, which has maintained E’ly swells in the sub-tropics, E/NE in temperate regions.