The multiple fetches coming off a Tasman low near New Zealand anchored by a high just east of Tasmania are now starting to wane. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a weakening fetch of SE winds in the Central/Northern Tasman and a thin fetch of strong winds out of Cook Strait. That will lead to a slow easing trend through tomorrow, accelerating into Fri and the start of the week-end.
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/10/easing-trend-the-weekend-lots-swell
freeride76
Wednesday, 10 August 2022
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/08/overlapping-pulses-the-se-week-tasman
freeride76
Monday, 8 August 2022
The building blocks are now in place for an active week of surf from the SE. A complex, multi-centred low is stationed over New Zealand with a strong (1029hPa) high located equidistant between Tasmania and the South Island offering excellent cradling support for the low.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/05/juicier-outlook-offer-next-week-tasman
freeride76
Friday, 5 August 2022
Surf prospects are definitely looking juicier for next week with a much more substantial fetch of S-SE winds set up on the Eastern side of the Tasman Sea as the decaying low reforms near New Zealand, aiming up several useful fetches back to the East Coast.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/03/nothing-get-excited-about-period-small
freeride76
Wednesday, 3 August 2022
Our Tasman Sea and Coral Sea swell windows remain very subdued as we move through the week. A monster, complex low system is slowly moving south of the Bight, expected to decay as it enters the Tasman Sea over the weekend.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/08/01/couple-small-ne-windswell-days-the-end
freeride76
Monday, 1 August 2022
We’ve finally come to a low spot in the current La Niña phase we are in with energy being dialled right back this week. The high pressure belt is moving at a more typical northerly latitude over interior Australia and with weaker, more mobile high pressure moving over the interior and into the Tasman, we are looking at a period of N’ly biased winds with W’ly oriented fronts being quickly shunted across the Tasman.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/29/one-more-day-surf-extended-spell-under
freeride76
Friday, 29 July 2022
No great action on the radar after this weekend as spring-like N'ly pattern establishes.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/27/still-strong-mix-south-quadrant-swells
freeride76
Wednesday, 27 July 2022
One of the features of this current La Niña phase has been long-lived swell events as low pressure lingers in the Tasman Sea. This current event is typical of that pattern. We are now close to the end game as the low which started off the CQ Coast in the Coral Sea expends it’s last energy off the bottom of the South Island New Zealand.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/25/great-looking-week-ahead-easing-down-the
freeride76
Monday, 25 July 2022
Lovely looking map this morning with the weekend’s Coral Sea low lingering near the North Island, having intensified overnight. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) pass shows storm force winds embedded in a larger fetch of SE-ESE gales to severe gales aimed back at NSW.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/22/plenty-size-weekend-coral-sea-low
freeride76
Friday, 22 July 2022
East Coast or hybrid low is now drifting towards Fraser Island, anchored by a huge high (1038hPa) just east of Tasmania. That's directing gales towards SEQLD, and a broad fetch of E/SE winds as far south as the Hunter.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/07/20/lots-size-the-e-weekend-and-next-week
freeride76
Wednesday, 20 July 2022
The basic building blocks as we described them in Monday's notes are now in place for (another!) dynamic La Niña mediated surf/weather event. A dominant high pressure system (1034hPa) is strengthening as it slowly crosses Tasmania, a typical Summer latitude for high pressure. The remains of a low near the South Island are continuing to send south quadrant swells our way and most notably a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is deepening and expected to activate into a fully fledged Coral Sea surface low as an upper trough moves over it from inland QLD tomorrow.
