Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 22nd July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Stronger E/NE tending E swell filling in over the weekend as tropical low drifts down from the Coral Sea- becoming very sizey by Sat PM
• Winds shift more S’ly on Sun opening up more locations
• Looks like a few good/great days early/mid next week with plenty of E-E/SE swell and offshore winds
• Renewal in SE swell likely Wed/Thurs, easing Fri
• More S swell likely into medium term, stay tuned for details

Recap

A straight onshore flow has kept surf quality low since Wed. Size was in the 3-4ft range, persisting into today with a straight E’ly flow creating surfable gurgle. Waves for the keen. There’s much more size ahead as a Coral Sea low starts to track South into the Tasman Sea over the weekend. Details below. 

Pretty gurgly way to end the week but I've surfed worse. Much better to come

This weekend (July 23-24)

East Coast or hybrid low is now drifting towards Fraser Island, anchored by a huge high (1038hPa) just east of Tasmania. That's directing gales towards SEQLD, and a broad fetch of E/SE winds as far south as the Hunter. The system tracks SE over the weekend, aiming up gales more directly at temperate NSW before deepening in a form of extra-tropical transition through Sun/Mon and then slowly weakening through Tues. That will equal an extended spell of elevated wave heights from this weekend into early/mid next week.

For the weekend and we’re expecting SE winds through Sat, a notch lighter than models indicated on Wed. That should equal cleaner conditions at sheltered spots. Wave heights look to be a tad under f/cast as the system moves through the swell window a little faster than anticipated. That will still see 3-4ft surf muscle up through the a’noon as mid period E and SSE swell fills in in the 4-5ft range with the odd 6ft set at E facing exposures, likely biggest late in the a’noon.

Size continues at similar levels on Sun, with direction veering a little more E/SE through the day. Winds also tend more S’ly through Sun, possibly SW inshore early, especially north of the Harbour. In short there will be plenty of surf Sun at protected locations, although a tad under what was f/cast on Wed. 

Next week (July 25 onwards)

As mentioned above, the low reintensifies as it tracks towards the North Island (suggesting a hybrid warm-cored system initially), with gales aimed back towards temperate NSW.

That’ll see plenty of size Mon, with a strong renewal in E/SE groundswell likely by mid-morning, pushing size from 4-5ft up into the 6ft+ range during the day. Winds ease back to lighter S’lies, likely SW inshore early. 

Tuesday sees a true offshore flow, with light W’lies likely extending well into the day, potentially freshening from the W/SW through the a’noon as a cold front sweeps up over NSW. Expect continuing strong E/SE groundswell in the 5-6ft range with larger 6ft+ sets, slowly easing down through the a’noon. Pencil in Tues.

By Mid week we’ll see S’lies kick in a cold front pushes further north, with a small surface low potentially forming off the Central Coast. Expect residual SE swell in the 4ft range and a chance of new shorter range S swell through the a’noon, although winds will be a problem.

Longer term and into the end of next week we’ll see plenty of swell energy from the SE as the low complex linger near New Zealand with a fetch SE winds extending under the South Island back into the Tasman Sea.

We’ll need to finesse these calls early next week but under current modelling we are looking at size in the 3-4ft range Thurs, easing back to 3ft Fri and into Sat.

Cold fronts sweeping into the Tasman are likely to see periodic wind shifts from W to SW to S’ly but there should be plenty of  clean windows available.

Into next weekend and we’re likely to see a brief pause in the action Sat PM into Sun before more S swell energises the Tasman Sea.

Check back Mon for details and have a great weekend!