Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 3rd Aug)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell Thurs/peaking Fri AM before W’ly change
• Tiny surf on the weekend with offshore winds
• Small S swell pulse expected Mon, holding Tues next week before easing with S’ly winds
• Minor SE swell Thurs next week
• Basically a very quiet week ahead!

Recap

Small surf since the last f/cast with yesterday seeing a small, clean signal of 1-2ft surf, fun on a big board. Today has dropped back further, by a notch, with only the most reliable swell magnets seeing any rideable surf. Clean conditions early are now being marred by a strengthening N’ly flow which is likely to whip up a minor NE windswell.

Minor swells and N'ly winds- good day for a beach walk

This week (Aug 3-5)

Our Tasman Sea and Coral Sea swell windows remain very subdued as we move through the week. A monster, complex low system is slowly moving south of the Bight, expected to decay as it enters the Tasman Sea over the weekend. A weak trough of low pressure between New Caledonia and the North Island is rapidly moving south without generating much useful swell and mobile high pressure at a northerly latitude is setting up a N’ly flow for the rest of the week. High cloud from a NW cloud band (a result of the negative IOD) is streaming in from Indonesian waters. 

No size to speak of to end the first week of August. N’ly winds freshen off the coast through Thurs, although not perfectly aligned for windswell production we should see size build into the 2-3ft range in the a’noon, likely bigger on the South Coast with fresh N’ly winds.

The approach of the decaying low Fri sees winds tilt from N/NW to NW then W/NW, which opens a window of opportunity as NE windswell cleans up. Size will dip quickly through the day, with leftover 2-3ft energy in the morning dropping back to a weak 1-2ft range during the a’noon. 

This weekend (Aug 6-7)

No great change to the very tepid weekend f/cast. If anything it looks even quieter than it looked on Mon.

The decaying low will have moved into the Tasman, with a W’ly flow across most of the region. Small traces of leftover E/NE swell and a  few minor traces of S swell from weak, zonal fronts pushing well to the south will see surf in the 1 to occasional 2ft range at the most reliable swell magnets on Sat.

More of the same expected Sun- a very weak and small blend of background swells around a foot, with winds shifting from W to W/SW as the low strengthens a little and builds a wind field off the NSW Central/South Coast. We’ll report back Fri on the outside chance of a late kick in S swell for Sun, but at this stage it looks more likely for Mon. 

Next week (Aug 8 onwards)

Not a great deal to get excited about to start the new week. SW winds off the coast form a broad but relatively weak fetch late Sun into Mon which will see low/mid period S swell build Mon, likely in the a’noon. Later model runs seem to weaken this fetch so it seems reasonable to offer a conservative call of 2ft at S facing beaches, bigger 2-3ft on the Hunter, with mod/fresh WSW winds tending SW/SSW in the a’noon.

This swell then peaks Tues with sets to 3ft, bigger 4ft on the Hunter and SW tending SSW-S’ly winds in the a’noon. Nothing to get excited about at this stage of the winter.

The rest of the week sees declining action. A fetch out of Cook Strait has been downgraded with declining S swell Wed and a small SE swell from that source providing some 2-3ft surf Thurs with a front and low driving a stiff W’ly flow across the region.

Into the end of next week and there’s a lot of model divergence on display with EC suggesting a broad area of low pressure with a weak fetch aimed mostly at Tasmania. GFS has a stronger front, located well to the south, transiting the lower Tasman. That offers potential for a couple of pulses of small/mod S groundswell possibly as early as next weekend 13/14 Aug.

Check back Fri and we’ll see if we can find the edge of this current spell of small surf.

Seeya then.