Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 5th Aug)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf on the Sat with offshore winds
• Slight uptick in SSE swell Sun with W winds tending SW in the a’noon
• Directional S swell now more solid on Mon with fresh S’ly winds
• Plenty of S to SSE swell Tues/Wed, with continuing S’lies
• Better angled SE swell Thurs, easing Fri with light winds
• Not much on offer next weekend
• Keeping tabs on the Eastern swell window looking at long range developments, check back in Mon!

Recap

Not much on offer yesterday with only weak surf in the 1-1.5ft range. NE windswell was late to the party and didn’t really offer much before dark. It has perked up overnight with around 2ft of NE windswell on offer to end the working week. Nothing amazing but enough to get a shortboard up on the plane. The weekend still looks flaccid but next week is looking more lively now. Read on for details. 

Few funky options this morning on rideable NE windswell

This weekend (Aug 6-7)

 Not much change to the weekend f/cast. We still have a complex low just about to enter the Tasman, weakening as it does so, with a trough and NW cloud band drifting across NSW. The N’ly flow is now tending more NW, with that trend continuing into a more direct offshore flow through the weekend, driven by the decaying low.

Surf-wise, nothing much to expect Sat with tiny leftovers in the 1-1.5ft range or less. Clean under offshore winds so if you can find a babyfood bank it may be suitable for learners and big boards.

Sunday should see a slight uptick in SSE swell as the decaying low sets up a modest fetch adjacent to Tasmania Sat. That should see some 1-2ft surf at S exposed breaks Sun, with W’ly winds swinging more SW later Sunday and freshening as a front associated with the low sweeps across the state. Keep expectations low but there should be a little wave on offer Sunday if you look around.

Next week (Aug 8 onwards)

Surf prospects are definitely looking juicier for next week with a much more substantial fetch of S-SE winds set up on the Eastern side of the Tasman Sea as the decaying low reforms near New Zealand, aiming up several useful fetches back to the East Coast (see below).

The initial increase of swell on Mon will be very directionally S, so expect the usual spread in size between S swell magnets and elsewhere. Expect plenty of size on the Hunter and other S swell magnets with surf to 4-6ft, much smaller elsewhere away from the directional S swell. Winds will be an issue with fresh SW to S winds on offer.

S’ly quarter winds are still on the menu for Tuesday but by degrees swell direction will tend more SSE, which should aid refraction into more sheltered spots. Exposed S facing breaks will still be in the 4-5ft range, expected to bump up during the day as SSE swell continues to fill in from gales near the South Island, anchoring a long fetch through the Tasman. 

By Wednesday we should start to see a gradual but consistent easing of the pressure gradient maintaining the S’ly flow along the Central NSW Coast. Lingering SW-S winds should lay down through the day, tending to light S to SE’ly breezes as high pressure encroaches.

Plenty of size is expected from the SSE with sets to 6ft at exposed breaks, smaller at more sheltered locations.

Thursday looks to be the first day where local winds really lay down as weak high pressure moves off the coast. That should see a morning land breeze and afternoon NE seabreeze kick in. Better angled mid-period SE swell generated out of Cook Strait will see some lovely 3-5ft surf making Thursday the pick of next week so far.

By the end of next week and into the weekend an easing trend will be in play as a weak blocking pattern kicks in. 

Friday is likely a mop up day for the last of the SE swell with N’ly winds kicking in.

Next weekend looks bereft of any major swell sources at this stage, with minor NE windswell possible and a NW flow as a low/front approaches from the West.

Some of the longer range models are hinting at renewed action in the Eastern swell window, possibly a low pressure system in the Coral Sea, in response to a massive trade surge through Tahitian longitudes.

We’ll keep our eyes on that and report back in on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!