Depending on the movement of Ex TC Alfred we’re highly likely at this stage to see an increased NE-E/NE flow along the NSW Coast early next week as the remnants of the system drift down the Northern Tablelands. 

Alfred is expected to move SE today, generating mod to large swells down the NSW coast (it’s already solid in the sub-tropics!). Alfred takes a westwards turn thorough Tues into Wed and there’s now model consensus we’ll see a coastal crossing in SEQLD or far NENSW Thurs or Fri.

TC Alfred is in the Coral Sea, currently about a 1000km NE of Mackay and slow moving, expected to slowly track southwards from today. TC Rae has sped off SE to the graveyard and TC Seru is located between Vanuatu and Fiji and moving S/SE. In this complex brew,  we’ll see multiple swell trains from the NE-E quadrant, although large swells are becoming increasingly unlikely as models firm on a coastal crossing for TC Alfred (still uncertainty over this track!) and the South Pacific cyclones track south-eastward, then eastwards as dissipating systems. 

The monsoon trough is still active with a tropical low off the N.QLD coast and lows in the South Pacific through the Island chains. Medium term surf potential rests on these tropical lows, with the supporting tradewind belt supplying plenty of energy in the interim, focussed on the sub-tropics short term.