Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 27th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Spike in S swell (favouring Syd-Hunter) Wed, with ESE swell easing and mod/fresh SW-SSW winds
• Winds tend W to SW again Thurs with a mix of S and new SE swell
• Swells temporarily easing Fri AM before a new S swell spike PM
• Solid leftover S swell Sat AM, easing through the day
• Surf becoming small Sun with freshening N’lies
• Couple of small NE windswell days next week- Mon and Fri most likely
• Quieter period through first week of Aug, stay tuned for updates

Recap

We expected good to great surf to start the week and it’s definitely been at the great end of the spectrum across the region. After a brief period of N’lies the offshore flow kicked in yesterday, grooming lovely lines from the E/SE in the 4-5ft range with the odd bigger one. Today has seen a solid kick in new S swell with sets to 6ft across the Hunter, along with continuing strong ESE-SE swell supplying sets to 4ft. Fresh W'ly winds provided groomed conditions, if a little too strong in some areas on the Illawarra.

Dreamy La Nina lineup yesterday afternoon

This week (July 27-July 29)

One of the features of this current La Niña phase has been long-lived swell events as low pressure lingers in the Tasman Sea. This current event is typical of that pattern. We are now close to the end game as the low which started off the CQ Coast in the Coral Sea expends it’s last energy off the bottom of the South Island New Zealand. That declining swell energy is being replaced by new S swell energy as a front and small low currently wind up off the NSW Coast. This swell is coming in early and coming in over expectations. Following fronts likewise look to warrant size upgrades from Mondays notes.

In the short run and todays stronger than expected pulse of S swell holds into Thursday, although on an easing trend. Expect sets to 4-5ft early, bigger 6ft on the Hunter. Mixed in with this directional S swell will be SE swell from the ex Coral Sea low now located under the South Island. That will supply some inconsistent 3-4ft sets. Under all day offshore winds, with just a touch of S’ly bias, it looks like another good/great day of surf ahead.

SW winds freshen on Fri as another cold front pushes across the state and into the Tasman Sea. As mentioned in Mondays notes, the more robust EC scenario now looks likely, with an upgrade in size coming with it. We’ll be looking at de-powered leftover 2-3ft surf early, mostly from the SE, with an a’noon spike in S swell. Under current modelling this should quickly push up into the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter, with fresh SW winds tending more SSW later in the day. You’ll find a smaller wave at more protected locations if you are keen to get wet Fri a’noon.

This weekend (July 30-31)

Fridays stronger S swell naturally translates to more energy available for Saturday. The front pushes away quite quickly so winds will slacken rapidly through the day. Starting out mod SW before tending variable and ending up as light E’ly to NE’ly breezes. Expect size in the 4-5ft range early at S exposed breaks, with bigger 6ft sets on the Hunter, with size rolling off quite quickly through the day. A bit of leftover SE energy will be in the mix as well.

Sunday drops off quickly with size easing quickly from 2-3ft at S facing beaches to less than 2ft through the day. There’ll be a Spring feel in the air with a high sitting off the NSW Central Coast directing a N’ly flow along the coast. That will freshen through the a’noon, contributing a bit of minor NE windswell to E facing beaches.

Next week (Aug 1 onwards)

N’lies freshen to start next week, as the high moves offshore and gradients tighten as a front approaches. Expect a fresh N’ly flow Mon morning , likely whipping up 2-3ft of NE windswell. Depending on the timing off the front winds will swing NW and possibly W’ly in the a’noon, offering a window of rapidly cleaning up NE windswell. 

A stalled low near Tasmania maintains W to N winds through Tues and Wed, with size dropping right down into the 2ft or less range. 

N’ly to NW’ly winds continue through the rest of next week, with another N’ly fetch developing off the Mid North Coast later in the week. This looks likely to whip up another round of NE windswell in the 2-3ft range,  probably Fri. 

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up. Bit early in the season to get excited about NE windswell when we still have quality groundswells to surf.