Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 25th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Great surf Mon from strong E-ESE swell with offshore winds, carries through into Tues 
• Spike in S swell (favouring Syd-Hunter) Wed, with ESE swell easing and mod/fresh SW-SSW winds
• Winds tend W again Thurs with a mix of S and new SE swell
• Swells easing Fri
• Looks like a small weekend ahead but still some uncertainty over f/cast
• Quieter period heading into first week of Aug, stay tuned for updates

Recap

A messy 3-4ft of E swell Sat that muscled up a notch in the a’noon, with cleaner and longer period E/NE swell Sunday in the 4-5ft range with lighter offshore winds early creating clean conditions favouring the Northern Beaches before S’ly winds kicked in. Today is flat out pumping with sets building to 5-6ft across most breaks due to the E’ly swell direction. Winds are light offshore, expected to tend light N’ly through the a’noon. 

Pumping on the beachies this morning

This week (July 25-July 29)

Lovely looking map this morning with the weekend’s Coral Sea  low lingering near the North Island, having intensified overnight. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) pass shows storm force winds embedded in a larger fetch of SE-ESE gales to severe gales aimed back at NSW. That will maintain elevated wave heights from a favourable direction through most of the week with supporting pulses arriving from the S during the week as a more typical winter pattern of cold fronts pushes into the Tasman,bringing a mostly offshore flow through the region. 

In the short run and Tuesday is still looking great, with an early W/NW to NW flow tending W’ly as a front pushes across the state. Expect plenty of great ESE-E swell in the 4-6ft range, just slowly easing through the a’noon. 

Wednesday sees a mix of easing E-ESE swell with early sets to 3-4ft, dropping back through the day. A cold front forms a small surface low off the Central/Mid North Coast, energising a SW-S fetch along the coast (see below). These proximate fetches favour Northern Beaches to Hunter Coast with a fast rising S swell building to 4-5ft in this region. Areas from Sydney to the Illawarra and further south are shadowed and likely to see much smaller surf, topping out around 2-3ft at S magnets.

Offshore winds continue through Thurs with S’ly quadrant swells continuing. The directional S swell will be in the ease, with leftover 4-5ft sets at S swell magnets from the Northern Beaches to Hunter. A pulse of SE swell will be filling in as the remnants of the Coral Sea low re-organise under the South Island , aiming up a fetch back towards the East Coast. This swell pulse will be a little weaker, coming in around 3-4ft and expect some inconsistency due to the travel distance. With all day offshore winds it still looks like a good/great day.

By the end of the working week swells will be on the wane. Another cold front brings a SW flow through the day, potentially swinging more SSW-S through the day. SE swell will slowly back down through the day, with a few 3ft sets early dropping back to 2-3ft during the day at exposed breaks. We’ll keep tabs on the possibility of a late spike in new S swell. Wave models aren’t suggesting anything but the EC prognosis is for a stronger frontal passage Fri so stay tuned for updates.

This weekend (July 30-31)

Wave models aren’t suggesting much action at all this weekend. A classic August W to NW flow with surf easing right back. Size in the 2ft range Sat and 1-2ft range Sun as the last of the S and SE swells from our current low ebb away.

We’ll mention that as the conventional wisdom. The European Model (ECMWF) has a much more bullish outlook with a strong front, creating a deep S to SSW fetch through the lower Tasman. That would suggest a much more active weekend with S swell building possibly as early as Fri PM and size in the 4-5ft range Sat, holding Sun morning before easing. Let’s flag that for now as a possibility and revisit on Wed. EC has been the more adventurous of the models during this La Niña and often needs to be dialled back. Check back Wed and we’ll see whether we are pulling out the snorkels or the step-ups.

Next week (Aug 1 onwards)

Looks like a relatively quiet start to the last month of Winter. Whatever frontal systems do pass through will clear the Tasman, with a more northward moving high creating a weak blocking pattern in the Tasman, suggesting a spell of more settled weather and small surf.

We’ll keep tabs on some fronts rapidly transiting through the far Lower Tasman but at this stage they look like marginal swell sources with very zonal fetches.

With so much surf on the short term to deal with we can afford to not stress over a quiet week next week.

Check back Wed for the latest update.