Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 1st Aug)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell Thurs/peaking Fri AM before W’ly change
• Tiny surf on the weekend with offshore winds
• S swell pulse expected Mon, holding Tues next week before easing with S’ly winds
• Basically a very quiet week ahead!

Recap

An easing trend after a week of pumping surf was the story of the weekend. Saturday saw some still-solid energy with around 4ft of S swell across the region, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter and light winds. Size dropped away further into Sunday with leftover 2-3ft surf, easing through the day and a N’ly flow. Today has seen the ocean quieten right down with only a couple of feet of week windswell on offer and a N’ly flow tending W’ly as a front pushes through. 

Nice little waves for beginners today

This week (Aug 1-5)

We’ve finally come to a low spot in the current La Niña phase we are in with energy being dialled right back this week.  The high pressure belt is moving at a more typical northerly latitude over interior Australia and with weaker, more mobile high pressure moving over the interior and into the Tasman, we are looking at a period of N’ly biased winds with W’ly oriented fronts being quickly shunted across the Tasman. A monster low slamming WA early this week, decays in the Bight before pushing into the Tasman over the weekend and doesn’t look to generate much surf for the Eastern seaboard. 

In the short run and there’s not much of a story to tell. Tiny scraps of leftover NE windswell and whatever background SE swell is leftover topping out around 1ft through Tues, with W winds, tending N/NW as the next mobile high pushes over the region.

That extends into Wed with N’ly winds starting to freshen, with a possibility of a slight kick in NE windswell in the a’noon, unlikely to exceed 2ft.

The end of the week looks a little more lively for NE windswell, as a N’ly fetch thickens up off the NSW Coast, and extends up into sub-tropical latitudes. That should see size up into the 2ft range through Thurs, peaking Fri morning in the 2-3ft range before rapidly easing as pre-frontal winds shift more NW then W/NW. That looks like the best window for the week.

This weekend (Aug 6-7)

Not much happening Saturday. Whatever leftover NE windswell will have been groomed flat by W’ly winds, so expect a great day for snorkelling with tiny surf in the 1ft range or less. 

As mentioned the decaying low pressure system about to smash WA will be approaching the Tasman, which will see winds shift W then W/SW Sunday and freshen, as a weak front spins off the low. 

Sunday is likely to be tiny as well, although we’ll keep tabs on the timing off the front with an eye on a possible late kick in S swell. It’s not looking like much to be honest, so keep expectations pegged low for Sunday. 

Next week (Aug 8 onwards)

The decaying low and front will be in the Tasman Mon next week (see below). A brief and broad SW-S fetch pushes up the NSW Coast Mon , generating a brief spike in S swell. Expect surf to build from 2ft to 3-5ft during the a’noon at S exposed breaks, bigger 6ft on the Hunter, along with fresh SW-S winds.'

Size holds into Tues morning before easing through the day with mod/fresh S’ly component winds messing up S facing beaches. Expect much smaller surf at more sheltered spots.

Through the middle of next week we’ll be tracking fetches off the South Island and possibly Cook Strait. Model runs over the weekend looked quite promising for pulses of E/SE and SE swell from those locations. Current runs are weakening those fetches and moving them away more quickly. At a minimum we’re looking at small SSE-SE swell from the South Island side of the Tasman from the middle of next week, with continuing W to NE wind shifts as mobile high pressure continues to move at a more N’ly latitude for now. A pretty typical Spring pattern that is likely to break back to Winter before August is done according to long range models.

Check back Wed for a fresh update.