Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 29th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Swells temporarily easing Fri AM before a new S swell spike PM with fresh SW-S winds
• Solid leftover S swell Sat AM, easing through the day with winds easing
• Surf becoming small Sun with freshening N’lies
• Couple of small NE windswell days next week- Mon and Fri most likely
• Quieter period through first week of Aug, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Plenty of energy remained from the southern quadrant to round off the week. Yesterday saw size in the 3-5ft range, easing a notch through the day and clean for a large proportion of the day under W’ly winds. Today has seen smaller surf initially with 3ft sets, bigger 4ft on the Hunter and only a brief window of clean conditions before fresh SW to S winds kicked in as a cold front swept through leading to a spike in new S swell through the a’noon. All in all, plenty of surf this week.

Solid energy in the water yesterday morning

This weekend (July 30-31)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Todays front moves away quickly, with high pressure moving over Central NSW. That will see morning SW breezes, quickly lay down, tend variable and likely end up as weak sea breezes. Mid period S swell of no great distinction will see some sets to 3-5ft across S facing beaches with S swell magnets like the Hunter seeing bigger 6ft sets early, with an easing trend setting in through the a’noon.

Size is expected to dribble away quickly on Sun as S swell dries up. Expect a few 2-3 ft sets early at reliable S swell magnets, dropping right back in the a’noon to 1-2ft or less. Mobile high pressure brings a N’ly flow to the region but it now looks unlikely to be strong enough to whip up any rideable NE windswell.

Next week (Aug 1 onwards)

Looking like a very quiet week to kick off the last month of winter. An approaching cold front Mon, with a very zonal (W-E) wind field will see winds veer NW, then W/NW with no surf to speak of. Tiny/flat and brushed clean is the likely outcome.

That front quickly clears the Tasman Tues with continuing tiny surf and offshore winds, tending N’ly again in the a’noon as another front approaches from the W. 

Expect freshening N’lies Wed, possibly whipping up a minor NE windswell later in the day, extending into Thurs as the N’ly flow continues. We’re not looking at anything likely to exceed 2ft so keep expectations pegged very low.

The N’ly pattern extends into Fri with no increase in swell.

A decaying low pressure system stalled below the Bight then slowly moves E over the weekend bringing a W’ly flow across the region with no significant increase in swell expected. 

We’ll keep tabs on a couple of very zonal fronts transiting the far southern Tasman Sea later next week for any minor pulses of S swell but at this stage we’re looking at a very tiny week extending into the weekend. Looks like a good time to fix dings and bust out the snorkel gear.

Check back Mon for the latest f/cast update and have a great weekend!