This S swell will combine with the long range E swell showing 3-4ft sets, potentially offering up some A frame beachies if you can crack the code. Friday looks well worth a paddle or two.
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Thursday looks the day for surf to thicken up as the deeper, better aligned SSE/SE fetch generates strong SSE swell for the NE/NSW Coast with a smaller amount getting into SEQLD. With the low moving away local pressure gradients will ease and lighter SW winds will see a day of cleaner, pumping waves.
An upper cold pool is expected to spawn a cut-off low East of Sydney during Tuesday. This is a different beast to the more polar lows that have been traversing the Tasman in the last few weeks, a classic “onion ring” system which occupies the majority of the central/southern Tasman for the majority of next week
A long, broad fetch of ESE/SE winds develops along the northern flank of the high, filling out that very favourable South Pacific corridor between the North Island and New Caledonia with strong winds to low end gales.
Gales exiting Bass Strait today will see a first pulse of weaker refracted S swell later tomorrow but the real juice is being generated by a deeper fetch of severe gales tracking from 55S up to 40S, into the Tasman sea through today and early tomorrow.
The deeper southern fetch tied to the polar low then fires up and aggressively tracks almost due north towards Tasmania with gales and severe gales extending up to almost Tasmanian latitudes later Mon.
The result is a long, broad fetch of severe gales from 55S up to Tasmanian latitudes Sun , extending even further south late Sun into Mon with a more favourable SSW tilt in wind alignment in the fetch.
This broad tradewind fetch isn’t anything amazing, but with a persistent coverage of 20-25 Knot winds Tuesday into Thursday we should get a fully developed sea state, which is the maximum amount of energy that can be imparted into the ocean given a certain wind speed
An unusually strong high for this time of year (1034 hPa) sets up in the central Tasman with quite a firm ridge up the QLD coast. It’ll feel like a late Summer pattern with SE winds blowing..
As mentioned on Wednesday a series of SW fetches slingshot up around the complex low and a secondary fetch which extends further south from Tasmania overnight Wed/early Thurs is expected to provide another strong pulse