South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 18 Aug)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• S swell eases Thurs with better winds
• Small levels of tradewind swell this Fri and into the  weekend, slightly bigger on Sunshine Coast with N’ly winds
• Good prospects for long range E’ly swell from Wed/Thurs next week, stay tuned for details.

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• S swell  easing slowly through Thurs/Fri with better winds
• Minor S swell pulse Sat
• More strong S swell potential mid-late next week, stay tuned.
• Good prospects for long range E’ly swell from Wed/Thurs next week, stay tuned for details.

Recap

S swell the last 2 days has been flukey with several pulses that have been tricky to line up with good conditions. Yesterday saw an initial spike in small S swell across NENSW, which eased and was then over-lapped by a stronger pulse which showed in the early a’noon on the MNC, late a’noon on the Far North Coast. 

Today has seen a generally scrappy swell with S’ly winds tearing into it, although winds backed off later in the a'noon south of the border. 3-5ft surf was on offer across NENSW at S facing beaches but to find something clean or semi-clean some size sacrifice was required. Surfable spots were generally in the 3-4ft range. SEQLD saw some raggedy 2-3ft surf on the Gold Coast with the Sunshine Coast a windy 2ft and not offering much in the way of size or quality. Typical S swell in other words. 

This week (Aug 18-20)

We’re past the peak intensity of the current low transiting the Tasman sea but the current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes still show a very long fetch of mostly strong winds extending from 50S  with the head of the fetch adjacent to central NSW latitudes (roughly Newcastle). That fetch will maintain a slow easing S swell through tomorrow with a further easing into Friday. 

Surf size is expected to slowly drift down from 3-4ft tomorrow, 2ft+ in SEQLD, back into the 3ft range in the a’noon and further down into the 2-3ft range Fri, likely bottoming out mid morning to mid a’noon. Rideable sized surf in SEQLD is likely limited to Thursday at S swell magnets. 

With high pressure now nosing into the Tasman and moving east of NSW later today, winds will ease into tomorrow with a variable pattern of light land and seabreezes which should offer all day surfing. Friday sees pre-frontal N’ly winds start to kick up, stronger in NENSW especially on the Coffs Coast and southwards.

Small amounts of short period E’ly tradewind swell are expected to trickle upwards later Thursday and into Fri in SEQLD, favouring the Sunshine Coast but keep expectations low, it’ll be around 1-2ft Thurs, bumping up a fraction into the 2ft range Fri. 

This weekend (Aug 21-22)

Another small mixed bag for the weekend with small amounts of tradewind swell keeping things ticking along at a rideable level in SEQLD and some marginal S swell on offer in NENSW. 

With high pressure drifting E towards the North Island there’s a weak and disconnected trade flow through the central and southern Coral Sea. Proximity equals size though and it’s worth a continuing 2ft of weak, but peaky E’ly swell over the weekend. Sunday may bump up another half notch; GFS is slightly more bullish on windspeeds than EC but you’ll be working with a pretty ordinary N’ly wind flow so keep a backbeach or cove in mind for a rideable wave.

NENSW may see some small stray S swell later Sat courtesy of a smaller, compact cold front and low passing well to the south of Tasmania overnight Wed and transiting the far-southern Tasman through tomorrow. It’s not an especially big system and it intensifies a bit too Far East in the swell window with source winds aimed at New Zealand targets to be a significant swell producer.

This source is expected to dry up Sunday.

N’ly winds are expected to build through Sunday so it’s really a tough forecast to find a rideable wave, get in early at a backbeach with low expectations is the best bet for Sun. 

Next week (Aug 23 and beyond)

Next week looks really active now, with a few different swell sources in the offing and a fair bit of model divergence, which is likely to see substantial revision on Fri. 

Lets look to the east first.

 The deep E’ly fetch we identified last Fri is now back on the books. Both major weather models are now interested in a large high becoming slow moving just on the Pacific side of the North Island from this weekend (21-22 Aug). A long, broad fetch of ESE/SE winds develops along the northern flank of the high, filling out that very favourable South Pacific corridor between the North Island and New Caledonia with strong winds to low end gales.

Model divergence is still significant, GFS develops a low or trough/dip on the flank of the low with a major ramp up of windspeeds, while EC has a much more modest but still impressive tradewind fetch through the early part of next week. The extra period from increased windspeeds would make a big difference in size and strength over the travel distance between the target and source fetch.

We’ve got enough info now to start blocking out the second half of next week, likely from Wed for a prolonged E’ly swell event. Nothing massive but potentially 3-4ft from the EC scenario or 3-5ft from GFS. Heads up, check back Fri for further details.

Now to the south. 

Plenty of action next week as the Southern Ocean maintains a very active late Winter storm pattern. N'ly winds maintain through Mon with small peaky E'ly tradewind swell on offer.

These winds get cleared out by a SW’ly change Tues as a strong front pushes well up into the interior of NSW, potentially spawning a small surface low that tracks away quickly to the E.

That suggest a moderate spike in S’ly swell later Tues, easing Wed. 

A much more significant polar low then tracks into the Tasman either later Wed or Thursday with gales and severe gales extending from 55S up to Tasmanian latitudes. Strong S swell pulse is likely to be generated by this fetch. A high at Tasmanian latitudes then drives S’ly winds up the coast, with potential for SE windswell to develop Fri 27.

It’s a complex brew of overlapping swell trains from the E and S and lots of wind changes ahead. 

Check back in Fri and we’ll run the ruler over it with fresh eyes. In the meantime hope everyone is getting a few sanity saving surfs in.