South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Friday 6 Aug)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Easing S swell Sat, get in early at magnets with light offshore winds before swell fades and winds turn N’ly.
• Longer period S swell glancing coast later Sun/Mon, with S to SE winds a problem.
• Better angled SSE swell Mon, slowly easing through Tues and Wed. Winds still mod onshore SE though easing Tues/Wed
• Small amounts of short period E’ly tradewind swell from Tues, favouring Sunshine Coast, possibly lingering at low levels through next week.

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Residual S swell Sat provides heaps of fun waves AM with light winds, N'lies in the PM
• Long period S’ly pulse Sun but with mod/fresh S’ly winds developing.
• Strong S/SSE pulse Mon, slowly easing through Tues with better winds in the AM.
• Small amounts of short period E’ly tradewind swell from Byron north from Tues.
• More S swell on the long term radar from next weekend, stay tuned.

Recap

Game of two halves in two regions since Wednesday's forecast. Thursday was a miss for SEQLD with a small signal of S swell arriving after lunch but met by a nasty N'ly wind. Conditions were generally very poor. NENSW saw a first flush of S swell in the morning, generated by the late arriving Bass Strait swell, clean under W'ly winds. This died down then a much more substantial pulse built through the late morning and lunch-time with S facing beaches building into the 4-5ft range and a fair spread of 3-4ft surf across most other open stretches. 

This morning has seen a much more substantial S swell in the water with S facing beaches in NENSW mostly overwhelmed with solid 6ft+ surf, grading smaller into less exposed spots. Good to great waves available at spots open to that direction and handling the size. SEQLD got a piece of the pie with fun 3ft waves at Gold Coast swell magnets and the Sunshine Coast seeing a fair spread of 2ft+ surf across Northern corners and more exposed beaches. Conditions all around were cherry with light offshore winds, which are now laying down and tending to light SE to NE seabreezes, stronger in QLD.

This weekend (Aug 7-8).

Not much change for the weekend as outlined in Wednesday's notes. Our complex Tasman low is now approaching the west coast of the South Island with a large high tracking through the south-west of the continent. A long trailing fetch of SW winds streaming out of Bass Strait  associated with the low and more cold front activity below Tasmania is expected to maintain fun-sized S swell through Saturday morning in NENSW. This fetch isn’t as strong as previous Bass Strait fetches but the already active sea state and residual S’ly energy in the Tasman sea lends a high degree of confidence of surf in the 3ft range at S exposed beaches in NENSW through the first half of  Sat (likely 3-4ft sets at real S magnets), with a slow easing trend in place PM.  Get in before N’ly winds hack into it. You’ll have to get into quick mop up mode in SEQLD as the smaller residual S swell, in the 2ft range, gets chewed up by an expected N’ly breeze much earlier in the morning. 

Models are also picking up traces of longer period S’ly swell generated in the Southern Ocean, which will add some sets to the mix through Sat. Finding a spot out of the N’ly that is handling the small, long period S swell won’t be an easy assignment.

Fill up Sat if you can because Sun looks a tougher nut to crack.

There’ll be some S’ly swell on offer as mentioned in Wed’s notes. A small low forms in a trough line east of Tas during Sat a’noon and substantially boots up the Tasman sea south swell window as it punches NE into the Central Tasman. An approaching dominant high quickly sets up a ridge in the wake of the low/front pushing northwards, bringing a blast of mod/fresh S’ly winds up the coast.  This swell source is likely to build across the MNC through the day, along with S’ly windswell generated by the local winds.

Looks like there will be a brief window of lighter variable winds Sun morning in SEQLD, possibly NW to W, which will open up northern corners for some 2ft sets before the S’ly wind pushes in hard. Check your local wind obs at dawn to see if it’s worth the effort. Micro peelers on the Points may be an option on the low tide but don’t expect much energy to be wrapping in.

All in all, Sunday looks a pretty marginal day for surf.

Next week (Aug 9 onwards)

Our “long tail” is still on the menu to start next week.

With the small but intense low becoming slow moving as it drifts NE up towards the Northern peninsula of the North Island, crossing it overnight Sun. 

Swell from this source is likely to be quite substantial in NENSW, with some strong 4ft sets on offer Monday, slowly easing back through Tuesday. The better angle will also see a better spread into SEQLD. 3-4ft sets at SEQLD swell magnets are on the menu through Mon.  Unfortunately, winds will be an issue. 

An unusually strong high for this time of year (1034 hPa) sets up in the central Tasman with quite a firm ridge up the QLD coast. It’ll feel like a late Summer pattern with SE winds blowing from Sun into Mon, easing into Tuesday. To get away from the wind Mon, you’ll have to make a size sacrifice, or take a quality hit. Tuesday sees the ridge weaken with a better chance of a morning offshore breeze, but we will be seeing an easing trend in play. Likely some cleaner 2-3ft surf on offer from the SE.

This SE swell is likely to continue on at low levels into Wed, with just a slow easing trend in place. It’ll be mixed in with some shorter period E’ly tradewind swell coming off the top of the dominant high as it drifts towards NZ. This source still looks a bit flukey to my eye. Models have pushed it northwards in recent runs away from the classic Coral Sea swell window, but with such a strong high in the Tasman I think it’ll still be worth a couple of feet of peaky E swell, potentially into Thursday, where developing N’ly winds are likely to spoil the party. 

Longer term and the next Southern Ocean polar low and frontal system looks barren for SEQLD with zonal fetches and low levels of highly refracted S swell unlikely to make much on an impact north of the border. That suggests grabbing what you can out of a mixed bag next week that should see surfable waves most days Mon/Thursday if you’re not too picky about quality.