South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 11 Aug)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small amounts of short period, peaky E’ly tradewind swell through Thurs/Fri, persisting at lower levels over the weekend with generally light winds
• Small S swell pulse Sun for the Gold Coast
• Stronger S swell late Tues for the Gold Coast, arriving Wed Sunshine Coast with S/SE winds likely

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small amounts of short period E’ly tradewind swell from Byron north from Thurs-Fri accompanied by NE to N winds
• Small mixed bag Sat with light SE winds developing
• Small S swell pulse Sun/ Mon with SE winds
• Much stronger S swell pulse TuesPM, holding Wed, easing through Thurs. 

Recap

Mixed bag across the region since Mon’s notes. There was plenty of strong 4-5ft SSE/SE groundswell on offer across NENSW S facing beaches yesterday, particularly those with deep water adjacent to shallow bathymetry. Smaller but well defined 3ft surf across most open stretches, with the swell mostly showing as the morning high tide drained away.  SEQLD saw much less size, with clean 2-3ft surf on the Gold Coast and messier, onshore surf on the Sunshine Coast. 

Today has seen an increase in E’ly tradewind swell, most notable across the Sunshine Coast, worth a few peaky 2-3ft waves. Conditions were clean early but quality was ordinary for the most part. The Gold Coast and NENSW saw a mix of remnant SE swell and small peaky E’ly swell with the E swell barely showing south of the Cape Byron. Cleanish conditions on offer early before N’ly winds hacked into it. 

This week (Aug 9-13)

Not much change from Wednesday’s notes. We still have an unseasonably strong high drifting in the Tasman, now close to New Zealand generating N’ly winds and an approaching cold front, expected to impact the south-east of the country overnight Wed. ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a healthy coverage of mostly 25-30 knot ESE tradewinds extending from Grand Terre across the central/southern Coral Sea being generated by the large 1032 hPa high.

A weak trough in advance of the front sees a shallow S’ly change that will likely stall on the Mid North Coast Thurs.  These shallow S’ly changes usually peter out around Coffs Harbour. N’ly winds will extend from SEQLD, down to the trough line. Small tradewind swell continues in SEQLD  in the 2-3ft range, bigger 3ft on the Sunny Coast with closer proximity to the source and  grading smaller north of the border, where the dregs of the current SE swell will see some 2ft leftovers on offer. 

The existing tradewind band weakens and the strongest winds contract northwards tomorrow but weaker 15-20 knot breezes in the favourable zone from New Caledonia to the Fraser Coast remain remarkably consistent to end the week and continue into the weekend.   That likely to see peaky, short period Tradewind swell drop back in size Fri but stabilise into the 2ft range while the fetch holds. Local winds look OK to utilise this peaky fun park if you can find a good bank.

 The stalled S’ly change will disrupt the N’ly winds leaving us with a day of flukey conditions on Friday. Light and variable south of the border, light NW in SEQLD, before NE seabreezes kick back in during the a’noon. Should be some clean 2ft peaks to work through Fri morning.

The passage of the front below Tasmania and a W’ly flow out of Bass Strait may see some stray, weaker S’ly swell show at select S swell magnets south of the border late Fri but keep expectations pegged very low for this flukey source. If N’ly winds remain light in the a’noon it’ll be worth a look at S swell magnets in NENSW for a rideable wave. Close to zero chance of anything showing north of Byron.

This weekend (Aug 14-15)

Slight downgrade for the weekend as far as S swell is concerned, as a polar low and front passing well to the south of Tasmania on Fri 13 now looks less favourably aligned for the east coast. It’s still a very deep low , 950 hPa, but with a very heavy W’ly bias in the fetch and a slight wobble to the S as it passes through the Tasman sea swell window. 

 At any rate, small tradewind swell is likely to remain the dominant swell train in SEQLD, holding in the 2ft range through Sat and Sun. Looks like a classic summer grovel with light land and seabreezes as a weak, mobile, high pressure ridge becomes established. 

NENSW may see a weak trace of S swell generated by a parent low passing under Tas Thursday arriving later Sat but it’s a very flukey source, good for a couple of feet at the most exposed swell magnets.

Longer period S swell from the passage of the parent low is likely to show a few lines in NENSW later Sun into Mon but with N’ly winds expected as the weak high pressure ridge moves E it’s not looking favourable for surf unless you can find a S facing beach that handles small, long lines. Some 2-3ft sets later Sun, and into Mon are possibly worth working around, if you time a S’ly change working it’s way up the coast during the day. 

Next week (Aug16 onwards)

We get a downgrade for the weekend and an upgrade for the following S swell. The very active Southern Ocean pattern reaches a crescendo late Sun into Mon with an intense, complex polar low which becomes slow moving as it enters the Tasman sea swell window. The result is a long, broad fetch of severe gales from 55S up to Tasmanian latitudes Sun , extending even further south late Sun into Mon with a more favourable SSW tilt in wind alignment in the fetch. 

This is on track to deliver several pulses of juicy S’ly groundswell early next week, favouring NENSW, but strong enough to make impact north of the border.

Monday see tradewind swell on the way out in SEQLD as a new High pressure ridges in and shoves the old fetch up and away. Small leftovers in the 1-2ft range Mon should ease back through the day.  S swell in NENSW from the low that passed under Tas on Fri13 will likely provide some 2-3ft sets at S swell magnets but findind quality may be difficult with S’ly winds pushing up the coast.

Tuesday is a different story. Much stronger S swell in the 4ft range at S facing beaches is expected to push up the coast, with a defined swell front reaching the Coffs coast around lunch-time, Ballina mid afternoon and the border before close of play. Winds will be an issue as a new high pressure ridge builds in behind the passage of the low, bringing possible mod/fresh S to SSE winds. There’s a chance winds will be SW as the swell arrives, we’ll dial that in on Fri.

Wednesday looks good, with the caveat that you might need to find a bit of wind protection. Powerful S swell in the 4-5 ft range  spell a great day for spots with S swell exposure, though with SW winds tending S’ly you’ll need to lose a bit of size to get the cleanest conditions. SEQLD should see some fun 2-3ft surf at S exposed breaks, likely wind affected on the Sunshine Coast.

Thursday should have plenty of fun leftovers from residual Tasman sea energy, likely 2ft in SEQLD, 3-4ft in NENSW S exposed spots. 

A downwards trend continues through Fri and into next weekend with small S swell likely padding out the working week. 

Longer term and the next strong high moving into the Tasman early next week has more subdued tradewind potential compared to Mondays notes. The fetch looks more northerly positioned and more S’ly angled. Still some chance we could see small tradewind swell develop later next week from this source. More on this in Fridays f/cast notes.