South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 16 Aug)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Stronger S swell late Tues for the Gold Coast, arriving Wed Sunshine Coast with S/SE winds likely
• S swell eases Thurs with better winds
• Small levels of tradewind swell this weekend, slightly bigger on Sunshine Coast with N’ly winds
• Some minor tradewind swell early next week possibly persisting later next week

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Initial S swell pulse Tues, stronger Wed, easing slowly through Thurs/Fri with better winds
• Some minor tradewind swell early next week north of Yamba, possibly persisting later next week
• Small S swell pulse Fri, easing Sat
• More strong S swell potential mid-late next week, stay tuned.

Recap

Real mixed bag across the region over the weekend with a mix of slow fading tradewind swell and a series of small over-lapping south swell trains. Saturday was dominated by tradewind swell in SEQLD with Sunshine Coast still seeing some 2-3ft surf, grading smaller 2ft on the Gold Coast and into NENSW, where there wasn't much left south of Yamba. Small S swell was in the water south of the border with some 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches.

South swell increased into the 3ft range south of the border during Sunday as a longer period swell made landfall under clean morning conditions. Small tradewind swell topped out at around 2ft on the Sunshine Coast with the Gold coast seeing smaller 1-2ft surf. Onshore winds after lunch kicked in and made a mess of it. 

Today has seen some continuing levels of small S swell across the region with NENSW seeing some fun 2-3ft surf, easing through the day and a few small 2ft waves in SEQLD. Conditions were clean early with light offshore winds. 

This week (Aug 16-20)

We’re right on the cusp of the next significant S swell event and as discussed in last week's notes a complex, deep polar low is currently sitting well to the south of the Tasman sea gateway, with a cold front pushing across Tasmania and into NSW. 

Gales exiting Bass Strait today will see a first pulse of weaker refracted S swell later tomorrow but the real juice is being generated by a deeper fetch of severe gales tracking from 55S up to 40S, into the Tasman sea through today and early tomorrow. Wind speeds then weaken through tomorrow as the remnants of the fetch track towards New Zealand through Tuesday. Compared to Fridays model runs it looks marginally less impressive with the deep tail of the fetch not so pronounced. Nonetheless we are still on track for a solid burst of S swell. 

Timing hasn’t changed much since Fri’s notes. Under-sized and slightly raggedy S swell will propagate up the NSW coast north of Seal Rocks from mid morning , with a mix of more proximate swell trains from the Bass Strait and Tasman sea sources. This will size up to around 3-4ft at S facing beaches through the day, reaching the Ballina zone lunch-time/early arvo and the QLD border on dark. Don’t expect too much size or quality from this initial pulse with mod S’lies developing as a high pressure ridge builds in rapidly behind the frontal progression. This belt of high pressure across the continent has been a feature of the weather for the last week. Located high enough in latitude to maintain good weather/light winds and deflect the normal August W’ly winds to the south. 

Wednesday still looks the goods- especially for NENSW- with the caveat that there might be a little bit of leftover bump from Tuesdays S to SE flow through the a’noon. Winds should lay down quickly as high pressure noses into the Tasman sea, with a light morning SW breeze tending variable before light a’noon SE winds.  Plenty of size is expected in NENSW, with 4-5ft surf at S facing beaches, grading smaller 3-4ft at cleaner spots with less S swell exposure. Much less size north of the border but the increase in period should see some 3ft waves at S facing beaches on the Gold Coast with some 2-3ft surf showing at northern corners on the Sunshine Coast in the a’noon.

By Wednesday evening we’ll be past the peak of the swell but the nice NE migration into the Tasman of the decaying fetch should see plenty of residual energy- a nice slow roll of in size through later Wed into the 4ft range and plenty of 3-4ft surf leftover on Thurs morning  across NENSW, with size and consistency tailing off further later in the day. Thursday should see some 2-3ft surf at S swell magnets on the Gold Coast with 2ft surf at Sunshine Coast swell magnets.

Light winds Thursday should see all day surfable conditions.

Friday has potential for NENSW but still looks a bit of a mystery bag. A passing front we mentioned on Friday has been boosted in recent model runs, but its further east across the Tasman than is ideal. It now strengthens early Thursday as to tracks through the lower Tasman. That suggests a small start Fri as we mop up the leftovers from this weeks swell. Light N’ly winds freshen through the day as a front approaches from the W.  A small kick in late S swell is possible Fri with some 2-3ft waves at NENSW S swell magnets but keep expectations low. Tiny leftovers in SEQLD are possibly surfable on grovel boards.

This weekend (Aug 21-22)

Another small, mixed bag forecast for the upcoming weekend. Small swells favouring S facing magnets for NENSW are on offer for Sat. High pressure near the North Island establishes a weak trade flow in the eastern Coral Sea and this is likely to keep some just-surfable 1-2ft waves on offer in SEQLD, slightly bigger on the Sunshine Coast. Tradeswell is likely to lift a half notch on Sunday. 

A cold front passing through Bass Strait Sat, brings a small S pulse Sun, again only in the 2ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW. Local winds don’t look great with N’lies on the radar, possibly lighter on Sun as a stalled trough disrupts the N’ly flow. That wind outlook may change but there’s nothing significant on the radar surf wise. 

Longer term (Aug 23 and beyond)

The South Pacific low we mentioned on Fri now looks a bit of a dud, with both major weather models favouring a resolution where any low forming quickly slides off to the SE, into the New Zealand graveyard and away from our swell window. GFS still maintains a reasonable tradewind flow but it’s mostly concentrated E of New Caledonia , with small amounts of tradewind swell expected through next week.

Of more interest are a series of fronts and a winter-calibre low expected to approach the Tasman sea Tues/Wed next week. Models are still a bit mixed on strength and timing of the progression but if Thurs/Fri next week looks set for another blast of S swell. With such a long lead time, specifics are subject to serious revision. We’ll come back Wed and take a fresh look at it.