South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 23 Aug)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun NE windswell Tues, better PM
• Long range E swell event start to show late Wed, inconsistent surf holds from Thurs-Sat with head high sets
• S swell pulse Wed PM
• Stronger SSE swell Thurs, easing into Fri
• Fun blend of SE and E swells likely next weekend

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun NE windswell Tues, better PM
• Initial S swell pulse Wed, building further PM
• Long range E swell event start to show late Wed, inconsistent surf holds from Thurs-Sat with head high sets, blending with dominant S to SE swell
• Pumping SSE to SE swell Thurs/Fri
• Fun blend of SE and E swells likely next weekend

Recap

Mostly tiny surf over the weekend made more attractive by light winds and warm, Bluewater, especially Saturday. Surf was a blend of small, peaky E’ly swell in SEQLD, with some minor S swell on offer in NENSW. Nothing over 2ft even at swell magnets. Sunday was more of the same with some clean 1-2ft surf on offer, good for longboards and beginners. Quality has deteriorated today with a freshening pre-frontal N’ly flow ripping it to shreds. This is a precursor to a storm force Tasman low developing Tuesday. Read on for details. 

This week (Aug 23-27)

The weekend's extremely warm, benign weather is about to be swept away by a wintry blast as a trough following the passage of a cold front later today interacts with a cold pool and forms an explosive surface low Tuesday morning. This cut-off Tasman low isn’t ideally positioned for NENSEW/SEQLD initially but as it moves SE into the Tasman sea Wed, will generate strong S to SSE swell and combine with an incoming long range E swell to produce good waves through the latter half of the week and into the weekend.

To back up a step, a NE infeed into the trough and developing low is dragging it’s heels- ASCAT passes show a very weak fetch that is likely to increase overnight. That offers a window tomorrow for NE sidewinders as pre-frontal N/NW winds blow before winds tend more W/SW.  NE windswell looks to be in the 2-3ft range through Tues with surfable options through Tuesday on the beachies especially PM when W'ly winds clean it up, though you may want to keep your powder dry, especially south of the border.

Storm force winds develop adjacent to the southern NSW coast through Tuesday and into Wed but this coast-hugging fetch is poorly positioned for north of Seal Rocks, being shadowed by the Hunter curve. So despite massive seas in southern NSW and maxing wave buoys our initial S swell pulse Wed will be quite modest. Expect 3-4ft S swell to propagate north during Wed, reaching Coffs around lunch-time, Ballina mid-a’noon and the QLD border on dark. Mod/fresh WSW winds will accompany the swell so swell magnets will be on the agenda. 

The low moves slowly SE on Wed with a proximate fetch hugging the coast of severe gale SSW winds and a better aligned fetch of SSE/SE winds starting to develop along the SW flank of the low. 

Thursday looks the day for surf to thicken up as the deeper, better aligned SSE/SE fetch generates strong SSE swell for the NE/NSW Coast with a smaller amount getting into SEQLD. With the low moving away local pressure gradients will ease and lighter SW winds will see a day of cleaner, pumping waves. 

There’ll be a small amount of mid period E swell in the water from the long range E’ly fetch that has been present in the South Pacific since Sun. While this fetch has looked a bit weaker in terms of windspeeds (compared to Friday's model runs) on ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes, the sheer length of the fetch and it’s persistence lends high confidence to there being 3ft sets through Thurs through Sat, possibly some 3-4ft sets on the Sunshine Coast, which has a slightly better exposure to the fetch. Expect long waits for the sets, though this shouldn’t be such an issue due to the strong SSE swell in the water. All in all Thursday should see dominant SSE swell in the 4-5ft range in NENSW, grading smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD with head-high sets from the E mixed in. 

Friday looks great as well. With the low weakening and moving away we’re left with a weak synoptic W’ly flow and strong leftover 3-5ft sets from the SSE, slowly easing through the day. Lully E swell will continue to supply some 3ft sets and these may be more noticeable as the dominant SSE swell eases back in strength. Light offshore winds should tend to light and late seabreezes through the day. It’s a day to get a go out in, if you are able.

Next weekend (Aug 28-29)

We’ll be on a slow roll-off this weekend as the Tasman low lingers in the eastern Tasman Sea with a well consolidated but weakening fetch of SSE winds through the central Tasman.  Winds look great with weak pressure gradients offering light land and seabreezes. Sat should see 3-4ft sets with some stray, super inconsistent 2-3ft E swell still on the menu, with both sources slowly easing. 

Residual swells from the E and SE on Sun offer plenty of fun 3ft beach break and light morning land breezes promise clean conditions before seabreezes kick in, possibly NE. 

Longer Term (Aug30) and beyond

Interesting set-up to end August with. Remnants of this weeks Tasman low look to reform on the other side of the North Island but at the stage the resultant low pressure system look just a bit too far south to be in the swell window,  although models do show it moving north to the edge of the swell window , so we’ll flag it and keep and eye on it. A slight movement northwards and we have another round of E'ly groundswell on hand in the first week of Sep.

Trailing SE winds extending down to the South Island generate another pulse of SE swell for Mon in the 3-4ft range for NENSW, 3ft at swell magnets in SEQLD.

High pressure in the Tasman has a downstream blocking effect on a series of powerful approaching frontal progressions and lows in the Southern Ocean suggesting supressed swell activity from the S as we move into Spring. We’ll take another look at that Wed but for now we’ve got bigger fish to fry.