South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 18 Aug)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Minor (just surfable) levels of tradewind swell this Fri and into the  weekend, slightly bigger on Sunshine Coast with N’ly winds
• Long range E swell event start to show late Wed, inconsistent surf holds from Thurs-Sat with head high sets
• S swell pulse Wed PM
• Stronger SE swell Thurs, easing into Fri
• Fun blend of SE and E swells likely next weekend

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Minor S swell pulse Sat, easing right back Sun with N’ly winds
• Initial S swell pulse Wed, building further PM
• Long range E swell event start to show late Wed, inconsistent surf holds from Thurs-Sat with head high sets, blending with dominant S to SE swell
• Pumping SSE to SE swell Thurs/Fri
• Fun blend of SE and E swells likely next weekend

Recap

Big range in wave heights across the region, as it typical with S swells. Swell evened out and even kicked a notch in NENSW yesterday with all day light winds and some long lines in the 3-4ft range. That has eased back today to a very slow 2-3ft, with early light winds now tending NE. SEQLD saw some surfable 2ft waves at swell magnets yesterday, with some clean 1-2ft peaks on offer today. Water was blue and warm which made the small peaks on offer very surfable.

This weekend (Aug 21-22)

Not much change from Wednesday’s notes. Minor surf remains on the menu, slightly bigger Sat. A front and low briefly flared up as it traversed the far lower Tasman sea Thursday but the fetch is poorly aligned and a bit Far East in the swell window to amount to anything much more than a few slow, stray 2footers at S facing beaches Sat in NENSW. Weak but proximate Tradewinds in the Coral Sea should be enough to supply some 1-2ft surf in SEQLD, possibly with some 2ft sets on the Sunshine Coast.  S swell will drop right back Sun with a very weak 1-2ft signal on offer at the most exposed S magnets. Probably worth a splash around on a big board as clean conditions continue. Expect N’ly winds both days with a lighter NW flow on offer both mornings.

Just a bit of fun in the sun type stuff but with a major swell on the cards next week don’t stress if you miss it.

Next week (Aug 23 and beyond)

Lots of action next week. We’ll divide it up by swell source for easier digestion. Take a deep breath and dive in.

Slow moving, robust Tasman low lights up East coast from Wednesday. Things get very juicy in the Tasman Sea this week. An upper cold pool is expected to spawn a cut-off low East of Sydney during Tuesday. This is a different beast to the more polar lows that have been traversing the Tasman in the last few weeks, a classic “onion ring” system which occupies the majority of the central/southern Tasman for the majority of next week

A freshening infeed of N’ly winds is likely to generate small levels of NE winds swell later Mon, with some leftovers Tues morning, much more likely from Coffs southwards. Expect some 2-3ft sidewinders and these should be cleaned up by developing W’ly winds as the low deepens during Tuesday.

By lunch-time Tuesday a cut-off surface low is expected to rapidly deepen with gales to severe gales forming adjacent to the southern NSW coast and a weaker tail end of the fetch extending past Tasmanian latitudes. Typically these proximate gale-force fetches produce a rapid rise in local S swell along the southern NSW coast up to the Hunter. While the Hunter curve blocks the rest of the NSW and QLD coast from the swell.

By Wed morning the low will be due E of Sydney with severe gales extending slowly Eastwards and southwards with a broad coverage of the central and lower Tasman Sea. This allows the fetch to generate surf for NENSW, initially, in the 3-4ft range during Wed before extending into SEQLD by late morning in the 2ft range.

Surf then muscles up later Wed in NENSW, as stronger S’ly swell trains formed from the much broader fetch make landfall. It’s likely we see surf in NENSW push up into the 4-6ft range late Wed, with smaller 3-4ft surf at semi-sheltered spots, which will be the cleanest under a SW/S flow. SEQLD S facing beaches should hit the 3ft mark, with smaller waves starting to refract into outer Points, especially on the Gold Coast.

Thursday will be fully pumping in NENSW as SSE/SE swell from the SE flank of the low likely peaks. We’ll need a last look at windspeeds to finesse the call but it’s going to be solid. Likely a solid 5-6ft on the sets, possibly bigger at bombies. Winds will be a slight issue with a high pressure cell near Tasmania extending a S’ly flow up along the coast. SW winds should be on the cards for the early, after which you’ll need to find a headland or bay for protection. Surf in SEQLD will be smaller 3-4ft at S exposed breaks, grading even smaller into outer Points.

This low remains slow moving through Thurs and even Fri, just gradually weakening. Which suggests plenty of size through Fri and a slow roll-off into next weekend. High pressure east of Tasmania suggests a weakening S’ly flow, tending SE into Fri and the weekend. 

Long range E swell on the radar from Late Wed/Thurs next week: A strong high becomes slow moving just east of the North Island later this weekend, with a very long fetch of ESE to SE winds developing along the northern flank of the high from Sun. A complex NW/SE angled trough forming along the northern flank ramps up windspeeds through Mon, possibly forming a small closed low Tuesday which further elevates windspeeds as the whole system slowly moves E then SE, eventually moving into the swell shadow of the North Island late Wed. 

There’s a lot to like about this system but the distance from the east coast and the fact that the Tasman sea is about to bombarded with S to SE swell means these swell trains won’t have the impact they might have had in a more benign surf environment, although they will certainly be significant in SEQLD.

Long range E swell should start to show later Wed, just as S swell starts to build but expect a Lully, inconsistent 2-3ft late in the day.

By Thurs we should start seeing a regular, if inconsistent 3ft on the sets, possibly 3-4ft at some of  the more reliable E swell magnets on the coast. This source will provide more action down into the Points and mix in with the prevailing SSE swell trains through Thurs and Fri.

E swell trains should slowly ease through next weekend as the energy slowly dissipates.

This will correspond with slow easing SE energy from the Tasman sea which should maintain fun sized surf into next weekend. 

Longer term looks much more subdued but with so much action in the short/medium term we can afford to stay focussed on the upcoming swells and take a fresh look at it on Mon. Have a great weekend.