South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 16 Aug)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small amounts of short period, peaky E’ly tradewind swell persisting at low levels over the weekend with generally light winds
• Small S swell pulse Sun for the Gold Coast
• Stronger S swell late Tues for the Gold Coast, arriving Wed Sunshine Coast with S/SE winds likely
• Tracking possible E’ly groundswell event from low near North Island next weekend, stay tune

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small mixed bag Sat with light SE winds developing
• Small S swell pulse Sun/ Mon with light AM winds
• Initial S swell pulse Tues, stronger Wed, easing slowly through Thurs/Fri
• Tracking possible E’ly groundswell event from low near North Island next weekend, stay tuned

Recap

Our unseasonal tradewind swell event has supplied very fun to surfable levels of peaky surf, topping out around the 3ft mark on the Sunshine Coast Thurs and extending further south today to supply the Gold Coast and NENSW with some clean lines in the 2-3ft range. Surf graded smaller further south with not much on offer south of Yamba. Nothing to write home about but a nice late winter treat. 

This weekend (Aug 14-15)

Mixed bag across the f/cast region this weekend. SEQLD will see slight levels of leftover tradewind swell easing right back, from persistent strong breezes in the New Cal to Fraser Coast swell window.  With light and variable winds each morning it’ll be worth a hunt around open beaches for a clean peak but don’t expect anything over 2ft. Likely 1-2ft by Sun. 

Small levels of flukey S swell will be in the water this weekend, mostly likely showing only at select NENSW S swell magnets. A front that passed into the Tasman yesterday has provided 2-3ft surf at Hunter coast spots today and this is likely to see some 2ft surf across NENSW magnets tomorrow, clean with light/variable breezes through most of the day. 

The deep low currently passing to the south of Tasmania is a massive system with ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes showing almost the entire area between Tasmania and 55S covered in gales to severe gales. Despite the very heavy W’ly bias in the winds the sheer width of the fetch is expected to see some stray longer period S swell impact through Sunday and into Mon. 

Sunday has a mix of flukey, refracted S swell trains in the water, from the low mentioned above, again only likely to show south of the border and Cape Byron. Easing leftovers Sun morning are likely to be overlapped by longer period swell trains in the a’noon, but keep expectations in check. We’re still talking 2ft at swell magnets with the odd 3ft set. Anywhere with deep water adjacent or rebounding will be worth a look, although N’ly winds on Sun a’noon might mean surfable spots are thin on the ground. All in all a few small waves are on offer.

Next week (Aug16 onwards)

Coming hot on the heels of Fri/Sat’s large but zonal low another complex polar low fires up as it enters Tasmanian longitudes on Sun. This is another impressively large and complex system, with a double headed low centre forming in the deep southern ocean around 60S and a more proximate cold front fetch expected to push NE to be adjacent to Tasmania through Monday morning. The deeper southern fetch tied to the polar low then fires up and aggressively tracks almost due north towards Tasmania with gales and severe gales extending up to almost Tasmanian latitudes later Mon. The system then weakens and transits the Tasman through Tuesday and into Wed. The strength and duration of these fetches will see several strong pulse of S swell through next week. There will be some winds to work around, details below.

First cab off the rank is expected to propagate up the coast through Tuesday, likely a bit undersized and ratty with shorter period S swell from the more proximate cold front past Tasmania. Expect 3ft surf to build at S facing beaches, showing through the morning on the MNC, lunchtime Ballina and QLD border mid a’noon. Not much size away from S facing beaches and S swell magnets on the Gold Coast are likely to hit the  2ft mark by close of play. Sunshine Coast is unlikely to see any surf from this first pulse. Winds will be a problem with new high pressure ridge building in behind the front bringing S to SE winds through the a’noon.

Wednesday looks a better bet. Longer period swell trains from the sling shot of the deep Southern Ocean fetch should see some real punch and line to the swell with solid 4-5ft surf on offer at S facing beaches, grading smaller away from S facing beaches. A good morning window of offshore land breezes is likely with better winds in the south of the f/cast region closer to the centre of the high and lingering S to SE winds in QLD, stronger on the Sunshine Coast. 

With the slower movement of the remains of the low and front through the Tasman there’ll be plenty of strong leftover energy from the S on Thursday. 3-4ft surf at S facing beaches is likely to persist through the day, with a slow easing in size and consistency. The ridge along the QLD coast weakens with better chance of a morning land breeze, almost a definite in NENSW. 

By Friday we’ll be in mop up mode but enough residual energy from a super-charged Tasman sea is expected to provide 2-3ft surf, likely dropping back into the 2ft range during the day. 

Tradewinds in the Coral Sea, while a bit weaker than this weeks round, are a chance of providing some small amounts of peaky, E’ly energy from Fri next week, but we’ll come back to that in Mondays notes and see how it is shaping up. 

Longer Term and a much weaker and more compact low passes well to the south of Tasmania Thurs/Fri next week suggesting a marginal S swell for the following weekend. 

Of more interest models are now firming on a trend of a sub-tropical low forming in an area of instability in the South Pacific SW of Fiji which is expected to consolidate near the North Island and become cradled by a supporting high pressure ridge next weekend (Aug21/22). While current model runs look jaw droppingly juicy it's a long way off so we’ll just flag it now as a possible source of potentially solid E’ly groundswell middle of the week beginning Aug23. Stay tuned for a fresh update Mon.